It's Really Over, Isn't It?

No, not the season.  Just the portion of the Donovan McNabb conversation where anyone can find something new to say.

With Senior Bowl practices this week, I have to admit I'm starting to get interested in the draft.  Not, like, hugely interested to the extent that I have strong opinions about small-school, fifth-round outside linebackers.  But kind of interested.

In relationship terms, I think we've reached the point where the guy's buddies are at least able to get him off the couch.

My go-to site for matters draft-related is Walter Football.  Other sites provide a bit more fake precision in terms of number grades and more detailed breakdowns, but Walt has the most interesting opinions.  He's also a Philadelphia guy.  If you, too, are starting to poke your head out of the covers, it's not a bad place to start.

The site has a few interesting items for Eagles fans.  If Les gets you excited about USC safety Taylor Mays this morning ...

The first thing you notice about Mays, as one former NFL assistant on the sideline observed, is that he is huge. Tight end-sized. Southern Cal listed him at 6-3, 230; he towered over the other d-backs at yesterday's practice. He moved very well for a big man, covering large chunks of the field effortlessly. When Mays ranged over to help out Alabama corner Javier Arenas, breaking up a pass intended for Citadel wideout Andre Roberts, dozens of scouts murmured appreciatively.

... Walt has a corrective:

Mays lost a ton of money by going back to school; he was exposed this season as a hard-hitting safety who can't cover anyone. There is still an outside chance someone takes him in Round 1, however.

Who's right, who's wrong?  No one knows.  Especially not now, before the combines, pro days, etc.

Although, 6-3, 230, not a deep cover guy ... wonder if we could look at this guy as a WIL ...

Moving on, Walt does the same thing every draft analyst always does when trying to predict Reid's first round pick -- go with the linemen:

#24 - Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Andy Reid loves drafting linemen on both sides of the ball, and the Eagles will be looking for an upgrade over mediocre left end Victor Abiamiri this offseason.

Carlos Dunlap lacks consistent effort and was charged with DUI recently, so there's a chance he could fall out of the first round. However, Andy Reid seems to be on a mission to redeem every single football player in America, and given his new (unwarranted) contract extension, Big Red can afford to take a chance on a high-upside, low-effort guy like Dunlap.

He gets the safety in the second:

#55 - Nate Allen, FS, South Florida
Sean Jones will not be back in Philly next year. He had major issues with tackling and was a huge liability for the Eagles against the Giants.

Told you he's got opinions.

Anyway, the most interesting thing he writes isn't actually about the Eagles:

Second-round quarterbacks have a 75-percent bust rate (I'll be exploring this soon). Excluding Drew Brees and possibly Chad Henne, name one successful Round 2 quarterback in the past decade. Don't try, because there are none. Believe it or not, the next best guy is Tarvaris Jackson (Kevin Kolb being an unknown right now).

...

And by the way, this is exactly why the Rams need to draft Jimmy Clausen. If they wait on a quarterback, their options here will be Tony Pike (spread shotgun system guy), Jevan Snead (the next Kyle Boller) and Colt McCoy (a poor man's Kyle Orton).

There's a reason that excluding Kevin Kolb (who hasn't played enough to make a determination), only two Round 2 quarterbacks panned out this past decade - the quarterback position is so important, that if a guy isn't a first-round prospect, he either has at least one very glaring flaw, or numerous things wrongs with him.

I'd have to do some digging to verify the numbers, but it's certainly an interesting point.

Walt's other guy also goes defensive end:

#24 - Corey Wootton, DE, Northwestern
I spent a lot of time on this Eagles pick and this is a tough team to draft for after they picked Jeremy Maclin last year. They won't go tight end after extending Brent Celek's contract. I doubt they go offensive tackle with the contracts they gave Winston Justice and Jason Peters. On defense, like I said previously, this is a poor 4-3 linebacker class. It is also an unimpressive safety class so I doubt they go there at this juncture. The only that makes sense is a defensive end, so they reach for Wootton who was injured most of last year after recovering from a serious knee injury.

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Personally, I don't see the Eagles making safety a high-round priority this year.  This year's experience notwithstanding, you can find safeties lots of places.  Other issues are much harder to address. 

I'm also a fan of Macho's.  Yeah, he had a tough second half of the year, but he's got good football instincts, more than enough athleticism for the position, and he hits the hell out of people.  Some slack needs to be cut for a rookie who had to change positions and come up to speed on a really complicated NFL defense.  I'm excited about what he might do next year.

With safety out of the picture, the draft priorities I see:

1.  Offensive line.  I know, I know, they scored a ton of points, focus on the defense, I get it.  But right now there are two gaping holes on that line, and I think we can say for sure they're not being filled by Nick Cole and Max Jean-Gilles. 

Maybe we get lucky and the RG hole gets filled by one of the Andrews brothers, while the center position is handled by McGlynn or Shipley.  These things are possible, but how likely? 

The o-line shake-up illustrates just how tricky an offseason this will be.  It's not like Reid can say, "Ok, huge, gaping hole, let's go get a guy."  There's a hole, but maybe we can patch it, but if we can't we're toast, so we better get a back-up plan in place, but how many resources can we commit to that effort when there are problems to address elsewhere?

Crap, just made the "trade McNabb" argument again. 

2.  Cornerback.  At the top of the draft, the Eagles will do their utmost to avoid drafting for need, as Sam has demonstrated.  They're set for now at the top two spots, but Sheldon's not getting younger and the cupboard is pretty bare after that (even if they bring Ellis Hobbs back as a kick returner).  For the long term, they need a guy here.

3.  Linebacker.  I expect next year's new starting linebacker to be a guy who's already in the league.  As complicated as the Eagles' defense is, it's really hard for a young guy to come up to speed quickly enough to make a first-year impact.  Time to rent a Shawn Barber or TKO for a season or two.  With that said, this is a great position to start bringing in some more talented players, for when the rental expires.

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Why not defensive end?  Honestly, I just don't see that being an area of need.  It would be a nice position to upgrade, but with Abiamiri and JP, you have capable players.  They're just not elite.  I think it's a lot more likely that we see another one of those Trent Cole or Bryan Smith type picks at that position.  Sure, you strike out on those guys a lot, but they're low risk and it's a position where being a tweener doesn't really stop you from having success (as opposed to, say, a cornerback who's a step slow).