Does It Change Your Mind If ...

Leaving all the baggage issues aside, the "trade McNabb now" argument is pretty simple:  You probably take a short-term hit going from McNabb to Kolb, but you get more value in the long run from the younger guy and if you move Donovan now, you're at least getting trade value in return.

For many people, an implicit assumption of this argument is that McNabb has more trade value right now than Kolb does, because he's a proven commodity and Kolb isn't.  But what if that's not the case?  What if Kolb is actually the guy with the bigger price tag?

First, let's say McNabb can play at about the same level for the next four years.  If you can find the right guy -- a big if -- that's more than enough time to develop the next QBOTF.  With a young team coming off an 11-win season, if you can get more for Kolb, make that deal, then try like crazy to win a Super Bowl during the DeSean Jackson window. 

Now, back to the original question, why would Kolb have more trade value?  For the same reason so many fans here want to keep him and ditch McNabb.  If another team trades for Donovan, it's a one-shot move.  They have to win right away.

Trade for Kolb, on the other hand, and it's just like drafting the most well-prepared, seasoned quarterback in the country.  Sure, you want to win right away, but if you have some other issues to take care of, you've still got another 10 years or so to get things worked out.

Maybe you don't agree with that assessment, but that brings up another point -- which is that your opinion doesn't matter very much.  Neither does mine.  Nor, really, do the opinions of 30 other franchises.  All it takes is that one GM or coach who says "This is the guy we can build our team around."

This was the crux of a discussion bsencore and I had over email last week relating to the points he's making over at his McNabb or Kolb blog.  There's value in having the "mostly likely outcomes" discussion, but we should never underestimate the extent to which decision makers a) have different opinions and b) do lots of stupid stuff. 

After all, the Eagles signed Mike Vick.