Thirteen Of Them, Three Of Us

"This draft never would have happened if Jim Johnson were still alive," according to Sam, who offers a provocative expansion on the theory of McDermott as a coverage coach.  Gabe and I also do our things in this post-draft roundtable that is appropriately sized for a nice Sunday afternoon read.

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BountyBowl

While the other fellas will likely go a bit deeper than I on the football aspects of the recently completed draft, I'd still like to register a bit of shock regarding the number of players that the Eagles actually selected.  Thirteen really seems like a lot (apparently the most since 1986, when the draft was still 12 rounds).  When the Birds were tiptoeing their way back through the second round and stockpiling picks in the fourth and fifth rounds, I assumed the plan was to use those picks to move back up or maneuver around a bit.  They couldn't possibly take that many players, right?  Nope.  They took thirteen.

The important thing to remember, yet again, is that there isn't any rebuilding going on at all. 

Other items from the draft TV show: 

 

The Three-Day Prime Time Draft Format.  I suspected that I would prefer the new draft format, and now that it's complete, I'm embarrassed that I didn't realize just how much I would enjoy it.  OF COURSE the draft is better as a prime time TV show with an extra day thrown in.  This is the only real football event between February and September and we're desperate for fresh content -- hardly a tough sell.  In fact, if they wanted to drag it out even more I'm listening.  Maybe something between the current three-day format and a round per day for an entire week?  Also, I'll post the obligatory links to the stories about soaring TV ratings especially versus other sports (though the Draft always outdraws the NBA and NFL playoffs).  Even with the Flyboys game on Thursday, I still didn't mind it.  (Speaking of the Flyboys, watching the Devils roll over and die reminded me of a certain football team's performance in Dallas last January -- nice to be on the other end of that.)

Wait, If You Live In New York, Why Didn't You Go To The Draft?  Don't think I wasn't tempted, especially because I work essentially across the street.  On Friday night, I actually started to walk up to security before reason got the better of me.  Given that I'd been away from home for most of the past three weeks (in case you're interested, the volcano had me stuck overseas, which led to the absurd decision to drive to Madrid from London, and so on and so forth -- it was fairly elaborate), I really couldn't justify sitting in a theater for an event that is consumed far more effectively with a laptop.  Maybe next year (as my pregnant wife shakes her head vigorously across the room).    

Academic And/ Or Judicial Robes?  Big Red started the week in such a promising fashion, looking fairly respectable in a striped shirt and blazer...

 

...but like an eight-year-old fidgeting in his church clothes, by Friday and Saturday he had ditched the legit attire for a couple selections from the Big & Tall Hall Of Shame Collection:

 

And:

 

Yikes.  That's a lot of floral print fabric right there.  At what point do the Birds just start marketing items like this as part of the Andy Reid Signature Collection (tm). Even Gruden was giving him a hard time for it during an ESPN interview Friday night -- that would be the same interview that featured the industrial-throated heckler who managed to get his cries of "RUN THE BALL, ANDY" (among others) into the live broadcast.

Speaking Of The Crowd At The Live Broadcast.  I'd just like it noted for the record that there seemed to be a fair amount of booing on display at the draft, and that said booing was not the result of an excess of attendees from Philadelphia.  Jets and Giants fans can be boorish as well.  That said, I like a boo as much as the next fellow, but I thought the draft crowd overdid it at times, especially when they were going after the former players and celebrity pickers; those were moments where I would have appreciated a bit less partisanship. 

Things You Learn Only By Watching Three Days Of Press Conferences.  PE.com is flush with new video content this weekend, including three Andy Reid pressers, introductory pressers for Graham and Allen, and a whole bunch of phone calls with draft picks (and even a Skype call or two).  It obviously isn't scintillating stuff, but that doesn't mean I didn't watch pretty much all of it.  As a result, I now know the following things: (a) the Eagles were happy with the state of their offensive line entering the draft, (b) a lot of the non-corners on the Eagles can apparently play corner, (c) Andy Reid and Brad Childress ran the spread offense with freshman quarterback Greg Wyatt at the University of Northern Arizona in 1986, and (d) Brent Celek is the backup longsnapper now that Darren Howard is gone.  As always, the devil is in the details.

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Sam

This draft never would have happened if Jim Johnson were still alive.

That’s what I found myself thinking as Day 3 of the draft progressed. JJ would never have let that Roseman kid totally ignore the CB position until taking the lightly-regarded Trevor Lindley at the top of the 4th round. Not after trading away Sheldon Brown. JJ would probably have tried to kill Howie before Day 2 was over. 

For years, we have gotten accustomed to a certain style of player. Sorting through a draft list for potential Eagles targets has been pretty easy. Figuring out who they were going to be going for and when was a snap. This year, however, I was totally surprised by the carpet-bombing of the front seven. The defensive backfield, absolutely, that was going to be a target of multiple picks. But the front seven? Blew me away.

On offense, the draft went as expected – with the glaring omission of offensive linemen. New developmental backup QB? Check. Backup running back? Check. WR who is strong in traffic? Check. TE who can catch but not block? Check. All of the guys were guys who I would have picked out as Eagles targets. Tommy Lawlor had them all on his wish list for Day 2. But apart from not picking an offensive lineman, this was nothing new. We know what Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg want on offense.

But the Eagles weren’t drafting for Jim Johnson’s defense this weekend. They were drafting for Sean McDermott’s defense. That is a big change from what we were used to. And we need to be very clear on the following point: the two defenses are not the same thing.

Last year, due to Johnson’s cancer, the offseason plan was executed as if the long-time coordinator were going to return, and so McDermott was eventually put in a situation where he was coaching Johnson’s players. He tried to make the best of that situation. But now the team has had a whole offseason to reshape the defensive personnel to fit what McDermott wants to do. The result: 6 of 13 draft picks dedicated to the front 7, plus 2 players acquired via trade, meaning of the 16 roster spots generally dedicated to the front 7, half of the players could be new. In the secondary, they added two safeties in the draft and one in free agency, meaning that Quintin Mikell could very well be the only returning player that makes the final roster at safety. And at cornerback? They added one in the draft, traded one away. They probably shifted another returning player from safety to corner (Macho Harris).

This wasn’t about getting out-maneuvered (though I think there were times – like when Miami traded up to grab AJ Edds at the end of the fourth round – where that happened). It wasn’t about Howie Roseman. This was about Sean McDermott. I think he wanted to restore the pass rush generated by his ends. He wanted to make sure we had depth at DT that was represented by actual DTs (drafting one and adding another as an UDFA). He wanted to have linebackers that could handle his complex coverage schemes. He wanted to have safeties that could do the same.

In the end, I think this is about the fact that McDermott is a coverage guy more than a blitz guy. Jim Johnson could cover up a sub-par rush with unpredictable blitzes. McDermott seems to think he can cover up a sub-par set of corners with unpredictable coverage schemes. (See Derek’s excellent post from the fall on McDermott’s coverage schemes.) He just has to have guys at linebacker and safety that can do that. In Graham and Te’o-Nesheim, he got DEs who are relentless pass rushers and versatile enough to swing inside and rush from DT, but are also strong enough to play the run without exposing the LBs. In Sims, Clayton and Chaney, he got speedy LBs who have the athleticism to execute his coverage schemes. In Jackson, Allen and Coleman, he has a set of safeties that are strong enough in coverage that people have evaluated all three as potential CBs at one time or another.

We’ll see whether he can pull it together, but my current belief is that this is a reflection of the new boss and what he wants his defense to be able to do well. Would he have liked better cornerbacks? Yes – any coordinator prefers pro bowlers across the board. But you can’t have everything, and my take-away this weekend was that it was all about building a defense that better reflected Sean McDermott’s own style than the one that JJ left him.

That said, let me break down the players into who I liked and who I didn’t:

Liked:

Brandon Graham: Perfect fit for our style of defensive line play. I really think he will be a huge hit in this city.

Nate Allen: Good in coverage, smart, good tackler though not a big, punishing hitter. Solves one of our biggest weaknesses in 2009.

Daniel Te’o Nesheim: The type of big, mean player that will be a fan favorite. We will see if he pans out, but I thought he would be coming here. 

Riley Cooper: The guy who is strong in traffic that we needed. Fills out our WR corps and balances big plays with some strength.

Charles Scott: A powerful guy who, if healthy, could have a nice burst. Another nod to balancing big plays with situational strength.

Jamar Chaney: Can’t believe we got him in the 7th. He could be the type of player I can imagine us ultimately using on the outside. 

Jeff Owens: Thank goodness we are getting some DT depth, and from the type of player who actually seems to fit our scheme. The idea of an injury to one of our starting DTs was a huge worry for me for the past couple of years. We got lucky in finding Antonio Dixon, but we needed to actually try to find a player that fits to build depth.

Indifferent:

Mike Kafka: I trust Reid’s ability to pick QBs. But I have never seen the big deal with this guy, either during the college season or in the Senior Bowl.

Clay Harbor: I have heard good things as a pass catcher. But I have more faith in Ingram … and I’m not sure we need a 3rd TE.

Kurt Coleman: Tweener safety. I hope that Demps beats him out.

Disliked:

Trevard Lindley: I’m not sold. I just don’t see anything special there.

Keenan Clayton: I really want to see how McDermott uses his ultra-light LBs before liking this pick. I have visions of Madison Hedgecock abusing this guy.

Ricky Sapp: Not sure I see him being a player who can play SAM, and am not sure I understand where he fits in at DE … I don’t get this pick, and I am not a fan of the player.

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Derek

I thought the last three days had one clear winner:  Tommy Lawlor, whose two sites were the go-to destinations for Eagles fans wanting analysis of our new players while ESPN and NFLN did everything but talk about the guys who'd just been picked.

Eagles content consumers are a lucky bunch.  Two major newspapers, the regional guys, two sports radio stations, a number of good blogs, and now our very own Mel Kiper.  

I read coverage from other cities during the season when I want to find out what they're saying about teams we're going to play.  I've yet to find a city that can compete with what's available in Philly, and a lot of places aren't even close.  (I think this may even partially explain the absence of ESPNPhiladelphia.  Not the national following of Boston, but with just as much local competition.)

Of course, for producers of Eagles content a bit less competition wouldn't hurt.  Good thing we're both.

On the draft itself, the last caller stole some of my thunder.  No worries, I still want to talk about it.

#1 -- McDermott the coverage coach.  I have a feeling this is going to be one of those ideas that's so widespread and obvious six months from now that people who come across that post then will wonder why anyone ever felt the need to write it up.  But for now, it's still taking hold.  

Sam and I are in perfect agreement when it comes to linebackers and safeties.  McD's more demanding coverage schemes need players across the field who can turn and burn.  At least 10 percent of the animus directed at Asante last year would go away if folks realized a number of those easy completions "he" gave up were really on other players making bad zone drops.

Credit to Sam for taking it to the next level when it comes to the defensive line.  If you want to be able to throw out exotic coverage schemes, it helps to not be sending extra guys all the time.  There are really only so many ways five guys can cover five other guys.

Seems gobsmackingly obvious at this point, but I guarantee you won't find someone last week who wrote the words, "The Eagles really need some more pass rushers up front to allow McD to dip fully into his bag of complicated coverages while only rushing four."  (Just saying they needed more front four pressure isn't the same thing.  That's apple pie.)

Where I might disagree with Sam is on the subject of cornerback.  I really don't think McD is fine with having CBs he has to scheme around.  While he may not need a guy who can play on an island to allow him to blitz more often, he definitely needs that island guy to take away one receiver while three other players focus on the uncoverable tight end.

Clearly there's a continuum here.  You want to have 11 Pro Bowlers, etc. But if I were to boil the disagreement down, I'd say Sam's position is McD thinks he can scheme around whatever guy we end up sticking out there and my position is that McD believes at least one of these guys is much better than we all think and he won't have to do much scheming around at all.

Whether that's reality or wishful thinking on my part or McD's, we'll soon enough find out.

#2 -- Playmakers versus broader roster talent.  This ended up being a pretty good question.  Especially this part:

This matters, because it should have some impact on how you approach the draft and free agency. If you need that one guy who can get to the quarterback, then maybe you have to pull a McDougle and trade up to get him. On the other hand, if you have the playmakers in place, it probably makes more sense to keep all your picks, draft talent at a bunch of positions, and work to upgrade your "foot soldiers" to go along with your "officers."

Turns out it wasn't either/or.  The Eagles did both.  

Of course there are trade-offs when you do that.  Once they traded up for Graham, they lost a lot of mid-round ammunition.

I've been staring at the two tables on the bottom of this page for awhile now.  It's interesting that we traded out of the third round to get Graham, but then got basically the same pick back later (#86 / #87), which we used on the player we're all agreeing to call "Teo" so we don't need to learn how to spell his name.

What's really interesting, though, is that if you match up the picks we made with the picks we had before the draft, you get a chart that looks like this:

 

The light blue picks were involved in the trade for Graham.  We got the red pick by giving up a 2011 selection.  All the green picks involved trades just within this draft.

*Rubs eyes*

Did we actually turn one pick into five?  Sure looks like we did. 

Using the draft trade value chart, how'd we do on all these?  Well, the old draft trade chart says we gave up 350 points and got back about 325.  That seems to be because the old chart really slams down the value of fourth-round picks.  Using one of the newer charts -- admittedly not the same one that seems to be definitive, but I already have it in excel -- we actually got back a surplus value of 124 points, equivalent to the #77 pick, in about the middle of the third round.

That may be overstating things, but imposing a slower rate of decline seems like a legitimate assumption in a draft universally described as being one of the deepest in years.  Leave aside for a moment questions about the underlying strategy of taking quantity instead of quality (which itself is more complicated than that).  If my math is right -- and I'm hammering this out as I get ready to take the family to the Phillies game this afternoon -- then we're talking about a pretty darn good trading performance by young Howie Roseman.

#3 -- We just picked up a truckload of ballers.  Not exactly a fresh observation to point out the words "high motor," "relentless" and "hustle guy" were basically applied to every single player we drafted, but it's still interesting to think about what it all means.

We can take Graham and Allen out of this discussion.  Graham doesn't have prototypical size, maybe, but he's a Trent Cole clone and first-round talent.  Allen's another guy who was picked right where people expected. The rest of the board, however, seemed to be one high-effort guy after another.  

Let's posit for a moment that to even get drafted, you're a pretty darn good football player.  But after the first couple rounds, everyone has question marks, with players loosely fitting into one of two categories:  1) physical specimen, questionable football player (either on-field or off) and 2) heck of a football player, physical shortcomings.

The Eagles seem to have no room for the former right now, which opens up a lot of interesting questions about the make-up of the locker room the last couple years.  Is this a reactive move, in response to some issues that have cropped up in terms of selfishness and motivation?  Or is it simply a looking-forward move, with the idea that the stars are (mostly) in place and now it's time to surround them with a bunch of dudes who love to go out and bang?

In the end, it may not even matter.  I'm just looking forward to watching a team packed full of young guys who love the game.

Training camp should be $#@!ing awesome this year.