I came across K.C. Joyner's book a couple years ago in a used book store. It was a disappointing read.
Given the audience here, I'm guessing a bunch of you have read it too. For the rest, imagine I slapped a few of these Eli Manning columns together, added a bunch of filler, and called it a day.
Joyner's other work is interesting. He charts a bunch of stats not followed by anyone not currently on an NFL team's payroll. I don't frankly know where he gets all the time.
So you can't just dismiss something like this:
In fact, Joyner has looked at metrics and game video that indicate Vick should've thrown eight interceptions by now instead of none ...
The game-video analysis shows him as having made 12 bad decisions in 202 dropbacks (The dropbacks in this case include plays that were nullified by penalties but do not include spiked passes or sacks.)," writes Joyner. "That equates to a 5.9 percent bad-decision rate. That means one out of every 17 passes Vick has thrown this season have been unnecessarily risk-laden.
To put that total into perspective, consider that Chicago Bears fans were almost ready to run Jay Cutler out of town last season in large part because of his risk-taking, and he posted a bad-decision rate of 3.4 percent. Vick's current rate is nearly 75 percent higher.
Annoying that we can't read all of it, but we can test a few of those numbers.
I don't know how Joyner counted dropbacks, but we do know that last year Cutler had 555 passing attempts, was sacked 35 times and had 40 rushing attempts. That sets a ceiling on the maximum number of dropbacks at 630 (with the true number lower once you strip out things like QB sneaks and kneeldowns).
Multiply 630 by 3.4% and you get 21.4. Using Joyner's math, that's the maximum number of bad decisions Cutler could have made last year.
The weird thing is Cutler threw 26 interceptions last year. So five of those interceptions were actually good decisions? And he didn't have any other bad decisions that didn't get picked?
Something's wrong with those numbers.
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I continue to be blown away by all the folks who read this blog. This morning, I got an email from a senior graphics editor at what we'll just call a major newspaper. He's launching a new site with interactive game charts for each week's games. Check out the Eagles section.
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Continuing the theme of emailed content, theguyotc (who's been tracking penalties this season) sent over the following -- hand-collected -- schedule strength spreadsheet for the NFC contenders:
Awfully encouraging. Some serious "schedule fraud" potential for a few of those teams, too, as he points out.
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From Gabe's hangover:
Not to go all Reuben Frank on you, but did you know that the Eagles are in the midst of a five-game winning streak against the Giants, which started the week after Thanksgiving in 2008? The Giants haven't beaten the Eagles since Plaxico Burress shot himself, and that includes that gloriously cold afternoon in January for the Divisional Playoff win later that year.
I have nightmares about Hakeem Nicks becoming the new Plax, however.