Last Dumping the Notebook Almanac Post
Posted by Derek
The Eagles Almanac, a collaboration of nine Eagles fans and writers that previews the 2012 season, came out Monday. I contributed a few pieces, but didn't have time to write up everything I researched. So buy the book, and then if you want more, I'll be dumping out the notebook for a few days.
As I mentioned a couple days ago, I hand-waved past a lot of the math in the "Is Asante overrated" post. It's not my intention to dive back into that, but I did want to pass along a couple of related charts, because they're interesting in their own right.
These charts display the average gain for all pass attempts from the past three seasons. In the first chart, INTs are counted as -50 yards. In the second, I just counted them as incompletes.
What I find interesting about these charts is what happens once you start to get beyond 20 yards. Take a look:
In both charts, there's a pretty darn orderly and linear relationship for the first 15 or so yards. Then things get weird for awhile, before the linear relationship mostly reasserts itself (with more bouncing around as the sample sizes get smaller and smaller).
The first chart is a better representation of reality, because INTs are worse that incomplete passes. And it sure does look like there's a dead zone once you get past about 20 yards.
(It's been a fun week. The reddit AMA a few of us did is worth checking out too.)