Bye Week Blogganza #7 (Bye Bye)

The bye week is over so we're tying up the final loose ends.  Looking forward again starting tomorrow.

The story so far: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6.

- - - - - -   

Since we're tying a bow on this here, I feel like it's my responsibility to make sure I answer all your final questions.  So here goes:

• No, I don't really feel betrayed by the alleged PED use by one or more members of the 1993 Phillies.  But I'm not sure the individual in question ever was all that secretive about it anyway.
• Seems harsh calling LB your least favorite Eagles.  He's at least somewhat responsible for one of my favorite players no longer being on the team, and I don't even put him in my bottom five.  It's not his fault Spadaro's boys fell so in love with him this summer that we all figured he must be something useful, if not special.
• Put me down for Lito Sheppard.  He lost me the day his agent starting ripping on one of his teammates and he was all, "What can I do?"  Um, you can tell him to shut the hell up.  He works for you, remember?
• On the Sheldon Brown thing, I listed all the reasons I like the guy.  And we'll never forget the Reggie Bush hit.  But some of the statements I've read from Sheldon in the past seem to suggest that he sees football as a way to live, not a reason for living.  I'm just saying, if we're picking favorites, I might be inclined to go for a guy whose priorities aren't so in order.
• Seattle's a terrible team.  Doesn't mean we can't lose to them.  (Anyone catch that Cowboys game today?  My brother said at the time, to explain why we were staying on that channel to watch the blowout rather than one of the other close games on at the same time, "This is like watching a Seinfeld rerun -- we know what's coming but it's so much fun to watch anyway.") 
• The MySpace story is 100 percent true.  I'd prefer not to call it "stalking" however.  I didn't send him revealing pictures or tell him we should be together forever or anything.
• As for Westbrook, the rib injury -- for a running back -- absolutely seems like something that might limit your effectiveness, but you can play through it if you can manage the pain.  It's not something like a busted knee where you have no choice but to sit out.  I don't see Westbrook sitting out any more than he has to.  Beyond that, you need to chill on this whole thing about Westbrook being chronically injured from here on out.  It's freaking Joe Banner.
• I don't think McNabb goes anywhere this year if he stays healthy.  I also don't think I wrote anything this summer saying I thought this would be his last year here if he didn't get hurt.  However, I definitely went through a dark period this summer when I started to worry about what it means that Kevin Kolb has only a four-year deal.  Figuring the Eagles would want to see what they had in him before they had to do a new deal, that gives them not much time to get him on the field and taking his shot.  My brother talked me off that ledge though.

Finally, the DVOA stuff.  There are two possible answers here, I think.  The first is that this is just a question of luck and small sample sizes.  Because the seasons are 16 games -- rather than 162 -- a handful of lucky or unlucky plays can have much more of an impact on the final standings.  The Eagles have played pretty well so far, they just have missed out on a couple of breaks that would make their record look better.

A second possibility is that it's not luck.  Every (close) game comes down to a couple of big plays.  The question is if it will be your guys or the other guys who make them.  Note that this assumes "playmaking ability" is a real thing.

I tend to feel like it's a mix of the two, myself.  And sometimes we're too close to see the difference.

Of course, if you want the explanation for why FO thinks the Eagles' have such a weird mix of record and DVOA, just go here.  Summary:

The biggest explanation for the difference between Philadelphia's win-loss record and total DVOA is that the offense has played much worse in the most important situations on the field. The Eagles rank fourth in DVOA on first down, 12th on second down, and 16th on third down -- including dead last on third-down runs. The Philadelphia offense ranks 17th in the red zone and a pathetic 31st in "close and late" situations (second half, score within a touchdown). They also have a poor red zone defense, although the defense has been very good in "close and late" situations.

We know that the "third-down rebound" effect is much stronger between seasons than it is during one specific season. I haven't had time to research whether poor performance in the red zone or in "close and late" situations tends to carry over for an entire season. However, if the Eagles offense can improve in these situations to match what it is doing the rest of the time, we won't be arguing about the team's place atop the DVOA ratings at the end of December.

And with that, we're off.  Hopefully we'll be wanting to do this again in February ...

Blogganza (sort of) (part #5)

Gabe and I ended up being a lot busier than we thought we'd be this week when we decided to kick off the blogganza.  It's still going, albeit at more of an MJG, rather than an Andrews, kind of pace.

Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4

- - - - - -

Gabe,

Oh no you don't.  You're not tagging and leaving me holding the bag the rest of the weekend.  I'm firing right back atcha.

First off, I don't see why the issue of "did he do that without help?" is something we should just ignore.  And if we do, can we then come back five years later and get all high and mighty about the cheaters when they do come out?

I don't know, I just feel like we pretend as hard as we can that the athletes we watch are all completely clean -- even when there's (much, much stronger than this case here about which I assure you I know nothing) circumstantial evidence to the contrary -- then we act all betrayed after the fact.  At some point it's our responsibility to stop falling for that.

Of course, there's another explanation here beyond simply willful ignorance.  I bet if you polled Eagles fans with the following question:  "If performance-enhancing drugs would allow David Akers to immediately regain his past form coming out of the bye week and you knew he would never be caught, would you be upset that he took them?" 

My guess is the majority of Eagles fans would be upset if he didn't.

(Side note:  Are beta blockers banned by the NFL?)

- - - - - -

I noticed you skipped the "least favorite Eagle" question.  Attaway to duck and dodge.  My only issue with Sheldon Brown is that he clearly seems to be in this thing for Sheldon Brown.  He's not a Brian Dawkins, who really does seem to live for the combat itself.  Instead, he's a guy who wants to play well > so he will be recognized for playing well > so he will be compensated for playing well > so he can then live the kind of life he wants to live.

This is, of course, the same way 99 percent of us feel about our jobs, too.  It's just that -- as with the previous topic -- it's a little easier to root for guys if we can hold on to the belief that they're in it for the game, just like we are. 

With that said, Sheldon's a stand-up guy, an above-average cornerback, does give some of the team's best interviews, and also made one hell of a play in that 49ers game when things were starting to get a little itchy.  He's also popped off at Drew Rosenhaus, so that gets him on my "would buy a drink for" list pretty much for life.

- - - - - -

That's funny you asked about Tony Hunt.  I was just thinking about writing some more about him.

And no, he's not here right now.  In fact, I've never had any success tracking him down.  I actually joined MySpace last year just  so I could contact Hunt through his page (and yeah, I'm pretty sure it was the actual Tony Hunt).  It was soon after the Booker trade, and I was hoping to get Hunt's take on the deal.

They weren't exactly penetrating questions either.  More like, "You've dealt with the doubters since you first got to Penn State, but always persevered in the end and really, aren't you just all about doing the best possible job so you can help the team win?"  Or maybe even softer than that.  Basically he could have taken out the question mark and cut and pasted.

But no.  No response. 

Still, here's the thing about Hunt.  I'm tired of people citing his (dismal) rushing statistics while he was here and saying his departure is no great loss.  (I'm also tired of people saying he can't block -- he missed a couple of blitz pick-ups last year and wasn't the one who decided he should be a fullback.  Every rookie running back misses blitz pick-ups.  He was fine this year.) 

The point isn't even Hunt himself, it's what he represented.  For a brief, shining moment after the Eagles drafted him, it looked like the team had finally accepted the wisdom of building a multi-faceted attack wherein the facets weren't just:  hand the ball to Brian Westbrook, throw the ball to Brian Westbrook, throw the ball to someone else.

Throw early to score.  Pound the ball late to win.  That's what we thought they might finally consider doing.

Because after all, it only makes sense to draft a guy like Hunt if you're planning to use him like that.  If you're only going to give the guy one or two carries a game when Westbrook needs a blow, then it makes MUCH more sense to have that guy be a Ryan Moats / Lorenzo Booker (yeah, they go together now) type home run hitter who might bust out a big play in limited action. 

So yeah, I was annoyed to see Hunt go.  The guy's a very good running back, he's just not flashy and he'll never be the most impressive guy in mini-camps.  But I was more annoyed by what it meant.

- - - - - -

I wanted to see Gonzalez too.  However, I admit it stung a bit that he saw the Giants as a team where he'd have a better chance of finally getting that ring. 

Ouch.

- - - - - -

Last bit here before I head out for the weekend.  My responses to your projections:

a.  Shawn Andrews doesn’t play another game for the Eagles this year, and spends the off-season musing about retirement.

Nah, if there's anything that's going to make Shawn realize how much he misses the game, it will be this extended absence from it. 

Even if he did walk, though, he'll live on forever at the NovaCare complex, where the Eagles are probably already putting the finishing touches on a giant "Don't let skipping training camp happen to YOU!" poster for the lobby.

b.  Dallas misses the playoffs.  Wade Phillips is fired shortly thereafter.  Jason Garrett is named the head coach.  Wow.  That was awesome to type.

Dallas has too much talent to miss the playoffs.  This is, in fact, the one thing holding me back about this Eagles season.  Dallas just looked more talented, at an individual level, when we played them.

Phillips is still getting fired, though.

c.  Washington makes the playoffs.  I can’t believe I’m typing that, but playing solid defense and running the ball can get you pretty far in the NFL.  And for the life of me I’m not going to say nice things about the Giants.

They lost to the Rams.  I realize the Eagles lose to those kinds of teams all the time, but generally that happens in the years we don't make the playoffs.  Washington isn't going to do it.

d.  Brian Westbrook never really gets healthy and rushes for fewer than 900 yards on the season (he’s at 194 after six games, so I’m saying he doesn’t break 70 yards/ game over the remaining ten).

You're nuts.  The return of Curtis and Brown (combined with the current guys holding down the fort) is going to open up all kinds of things underneath for the running backs and tight ends. 

Westbrook is a proud, proud guy.  He's not going to like the fact that right after he got the big money he stopped producing.  I don't think he'll let that happen.

e.  Finally, at long last: Donovan McNabb starts 16 games, and, GASP, is welcomed back as the Eagles presumptive starter for 2009!

But won't it be a fun ride, though?  What's funny about this season is how much crap McNabb took early when he hasn't even had his patented two-game stretch of puzzlingly bad play yet. 

That's the thing about a lot of his non-fans.  They're quiet now (or jumping on Andy Reid), but they're just waiting to jump back out the first time he struggles.

- - - - - -

All right man, you're back on point.  Have a nice, relaxing, non-Eagles weekend.

Bye Week Blogganza (#3)

You know the drill by now. 

Part one.  Part two.

- - - - - -

So, the Phillies.  Yeah, I'm pretty psyched.  I was definitely a baseball kid growing up.  I've still only attended two Eagles games in person -- both after the age of 25 -- while I've been to what must be dozens of Phillies games. 

I can't help but think winning the World Series would be awfully therapeutic for this town's collective sports mindset as well.  Yes, very therapeutic.

But now it looks like we'll be waiting a little bit longer to find out who the opponent will be.  That was a heck of a collapse by the Rays last night.  It will be interesting to see if/how they bounce back. 

I'm still rooting for Boston, only because it makes things more interesting when unaffiliated fans nationwide all a) care about the Series, and b) desperately want your team to win. 

Enough about baseball, though.  We're here to talk football, and your discussion questions have nicely teed up a few topics:

1. This Darren Howard fellow. Do my eyes mistake me, or is Howard actually playing well right now? Was this the guy we were supposed to see two years ago?

I want to be veeeeery careful what I say right here, especially because more people are paying attention to this blog than was true a couple of years ago.  Let's examine what we have here:

• A player about to lose his job (and with it likely his future employment prospects) if he doesn't suddenly become more productive.

• Stories like this:  "Howard ... had to exchange the T-shirt he was given (an XXL) by the team to wear to a playground dedication because of the tight fit. "Too big up here, anymore," he said, flexing his upper body. He is now a chiseled 255 pounds, about 15 lighter than last year's playing weight... "I've always wanted to change my body around and work a little bit harder [in the offseason], try to get a little more muscle on my frame. This year I just happened to do it. I don't know if there was a particular reason."

• Miraculously, more sacks in the last six games than in the previous 25.

This suggests one of two things.  Either he didn't work hard enough his first two offseasons to get himself into the kind of shape he's in now, or this offseason he decided to bring in a little ... extra help. 

Hate to be a downer, but in either case I'm somewhat disappointed. 

And isn't it sort of our responsibility as sports fans to bring a certain skepticism to these issues?  After all, we've all gotten the vapors from finding out that guys like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens and -- even -- Barry Bonds might have had some sticky friends.  The burden of proof has to be on the players these days. 

2. Your buddy David Akers.  I feel badly talking about it since he might actually read one of these things, but, um, things aren’t looking so good there.  Do you think that he’ll be the kicker at the end of the season?  Give me the scenarios that might put his job in jeopardy? 

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure how much longer Andy Reid can wait this one out.  David just looks like a guy playing without any confidence.  If the playoffs started tomorrow -- and assuming contra the standings that we're in them -- would Reid really be comfortable going into those kinds of tough games with Akers as his kicker? 

I say no.  Which means there's definitely a timeframe here in which Akers needs to turn things around if he's going to be here to help us celebrate our first Super Bowl win in February. 

Questions I'd like to know the answers to:

• Does Akers perform noticeably better in practice than in games?
• Has he tried the sports psychologist route?
• Could the Eagles bring back Koy Detmer first as Akers' personal "kicking coach" and valet?  Then if that doesn't help, maybe go the next step and hand him a uniform.

As for timing, assuming nothing changes, I don't think Akers lasts if he blows a game from here on out.  The distraction would be overwhelming. 

Come on, man, turn it around.

3.  Finally one of your favorites: do the Eagles have one of the best young linebacking corps in the NFL or are they still a player short at best? 

To answer that question fairly, I'd really need a better handle on the other 31 linebacking corps out there.  On the other hand, since we seem completely unable to cover opposing tight ends, I think it's safe to assume the answer is "no." 

With that said, I'm quite high on two-thirds of said corps.

4. Is the NFC East still the best division in football?

Maybe?  Who knows?  As you rightly (and mockingly) pointed out, we have a tendency to whipsaw rather violently in our assessments of teams in this league based on their week-to-week performance. 

The NFC South is legitimately frisky this year.  I wouldn't feel all that confident about playing their last-place New Orleans Saints right now.

Even the NFC West has a team with a winning record this year.  Way to go guys!

5. BONUS: give me something I don’t see coming but should, both for the Eagles and the rest of the division.

DeSean Jackson will finish the year as the team's leading receiver, pile up more than 1,000 yards, and be named the offensive Rookie of the Year.

Records:

• The Eagles will beat Atlanta, lose to Seattle, then win seven of their last eight to finish the year 11-5.

• The Cowboys will win their next three games to momentarily silence the doubters, but once the "rally round" effect passes they'll disappoint in the second half and go 10-6.

• Washington beats the bad teams and loses to the good ones to go 9-7

• The Giants will lose seven of 11 to finish 8-8.

Beyond that, I'm not feeling very oraculous.

- - - - - -

Questions for you:

1.  Favorite / least favorite Eagles and why?  No cheating by picking old-timers, I'm talking current roster.

2.  Fill in the blanks:  "The Phillies winning the World Series would feel like __________.  The Eagles winning the Super Bowl would feel like __________."

3.  You're really not going to ask about Tony Hunt?

4.  Over the past 10 months, the Eagles have been linked by rumor to approximately two dozen players not currently on their roster.  Of the guys who actually changed teams -- yes, we all wanted Larry Fitzgerald -- who are you most annoyed about not getting?  (NOTA is an acceptable answer if you show your work.)

5.  I cheated on your bonus question, but now I'm kind of interested in hearing your answer to it.  I'm rubber, you're glue ...

Blogganza Redux

Update: Gabe's response is up.

- - - - - -

During the summer, Gabe from Bounty Bowl and I did a 10-part back-and-forth on all things Eagles.  The Blogstravaganza ended up being one of the more popular things we've done around here, so with the by week upon us, we're going to roll it out again.

Gabe's been angling to keep this one a little shorter and more on point, so right now I'm thinking we're really just looking at a Blogganza.  But hey, maybe if we all goad him into continual responses, we'll earn the extra "strava."

And if I know anything about you readers, it's that you are excellent at goading people into continual responses. 

Onwards.

- - - - - -

Gabe,

There has been no shortage of story lines for this young Eagles' season, but I think once again our citywide obsession with the polarizing figures of [that guy], [that other guy] and [that guy who signs the checks] means that once again we're wasting time rehashing the same tired arguments when really we should be focused on the biggest development in Igglesland since at least the early part of 2005.

I'm talking, of course, about DeSean Jackson. 

I was flipping through my copy of Pro Football Prospectus again last night because I wanted to take another look at their "well there must be a reason" explanation for why the Cowboys have been so lucky with injuries the last few years.  After reading that, I went back to the projected stats tables at the end to see what the FO guys thought of DeSean Jackson.  Their stats:

28 receptions, 14.1 y/c, 398 yards, 2 touchdowns

If you had asked Eagles fans before the season if they would have taken those numbers, I think most would have said yes.  This obviously wouldn't have been best-case scenario, but given the underperformance of most rookie wide receivers in this offense, it seemed like a good place to start. 

Now, Jackson's actual stats:

29 receptions, 14.9 y/c, 433 yards, 1 touchdown

And really it should be two TDs.  Through six weeks.

Yes, thank you Capt. Obvious for pointing out that Curtis and Brown have both been hurt and that's why he's gotten more opportunities.  That's merely changed the when, not the what.

When he's out there (and really, why is he not always out there), Jackson looks like the best receiver on this offense.  By far.  Of course, he's not actually the best receiver.  Kevin Curtis is clearly better and Reggie Brown probably is too. 

But DeSean Jackson looks like the best receiver because when he's open, he's open.  We've spent three years arguing about separation.  Does that guy get enough separation?  Does McNabb recognize when a guy has enough separation?  How much room do you really need to squeeze a pass in? 

Then Jackson shows up and all of a sudden we're not talking about 10-inch windows, we're looking at 10 feet.

I'm also blown away by the kid's football IQ.  Think about that route LJ Smith (sort of) ran last week into Takeo Spikes.  That was an ugly play all around, but the bottom line is that the one thing you cannot do is allow the linebacker to get between you and the quarterback.  That's pretty much rule #1 on that route.  And yet LJ and Donovan weren't on the same page, the tight end kind of hesitated, wondering if he should sit in the zone, then started up again, then Donovan threw the ball right to TKO, then the stone-handed LB miraculously held onto it (who says McNabb doesn't have good touch on the ball).

Meanwhile, Jackson already has a veteran's sense of spacing in the passing game.  You can't play a regular cover two against the kid because he and McNabb are already locked in on that sideline window.  His deep catches in the middle always seem to come when he's perfectly positioned between three guys playing zone, none of whom is close enough to make a play.

Even that awful route breakoff he ran a few weeks ago came because he was trying to get to the open part of the field, rather than just running at the safety. 

To top it all off, everyone says the guy prepares like a pro, doesn't have an attitude about working hard, and -- oh yeah -- he's quickly becoming one of the league's most dangerous punt returners.

You asked via email if the 2008 Eagles are any different than the 2007 Eagles.  They are. 

Last year's Eagles didn't have DeSean Jackson.

In fact, leaving injuries aside for a moment,after six weeks, I firmly believe that the only thing standing between this Eagles' team and a championship might be bad coaching.

.......................

But wait......

You're the guy who ... I mean ... Reid is ...

Wait, what?

Yep, I said it, bad coaching.  And I mean it.  From this point forward.

Consider the following.  It's incredibly obvious at this point in time that the Eagles' front four is a) definitely stout enough to take on Marion Barber without getting tricky, but b) won't get to Tony Romo without blitzing.  What people forget, though, is that neither of those facts was known before we played the Cowboys.

So yeah, we can criticize Jim Johnson for what ended up being a pretty crappy game plan against Dallas.  He gets paid the big bucks to be a couple steps ahead and this time he wasn't.  But the truth is that he didn't know in September what kind of unit he had, or how well they would play at some spots, or how question marks would remain at others.  So it's all guesswork in the beginning.

After six games, though, the Eagles should have a pretty good sense of exactly what they have this year.  Which means next time we play the Cowboys, things should be a little different. 

Now flip this over to the offensive side of the football.  When you can move the football as well as the Ealges have with their backups, clearly you have the talent to put together a truly special attack.  The Eagles have a top 10 offense by either traditional statistical category, and unlike last year, they're actually better (7th) in terms of scoring than they are (9th) in terms of yardage.  And that's with so many of the big guns missing so much time.  (If Tom Brady or Brett Favre were doing this with these guys, the MVP talk would be deafening.)

Which obviously means the coaching on that side of the ball isn't terrible.

The problem, however, is that the Eagles seem to have a "sprinkle stuff in" offensive philosophy.  They're going to try to beat you with the same plays they've run for years, and only occasionally will they go for the cross-up.  It's a philosophy of execution rather than misdirection. 

This has to change.

Think about how good the Eagles looked on that first drive against Washington (when the defense didn't seem to have any idea what was coming).  Think about how bad they looked the rest of that game (when the defense did).

Basically, the offensive coaches need to treat every game from here on out as The Game.  Leave nothing out of the game plan.  Don't worry about showing stuff you'd rather save for later.  Instead, show so much stuff that opponents don't know what to prepare for.

If we stick with the tried-and-true, we're going to be pretty good, but at some point we'll come up short.  If we, ahem, put the pedal to the metal, then I don't think anyone can stop us.  That's going to require a bit of a personality shift, though.  And it means Reid & Co. really will need to think about putting guys in a better position to make plays.

In fact, that leads to my biggest unresolved question heading into the bye week.  The Eagles seem to have had two really special coaching moments this season.  The first was the defensive game plan against Pittsburgh, where they ran copious amounts of the Joker package and seemed to know exactly how Roethlisberger would respond to pressure from different angles.  The second was the first scripted series against Washington.

How much input did Mark Whipple have in those two cases?

Your turn.