Iggles Blog - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

Odd Second Day So Far

THIRD UPDATE:  OT Fenuki Tupou at 159.  Finally picked up a lineman.  Looks like a true tackle or guard prospect.  Too tall to play center. 

SECOND UPDATE:  CB Victor "Macho" Harris out of Va. Tech at 157.

Positives: Natural playmaker. ... Versatile athlete with the skills to help at multiple positions. ... Alert zone defender. ... Reads the quarterback's eyes and closes quickly on the ball. ... Reliable open-field tackler who flashes explosiveness as a hitter. ... Willing to dirty his jersey against the run. ... Good lateral agility to elude blockers and will come up aggressively in run support. ... At least adequate hip flexibility and straight-line speed. ... Natural hands for the interception. ... Can track the ball over either shoulder. ... Good leaping ability and times his leaps well. ... Can highpoint passes and shows the strong hands to snatch passes out of the air. ... Reliable hands as a returner. ... Good vision and burst as a returner.

Negatives: Might lack the hip flexibility and straight-line speed for man coverage. ... Inconsistent press technique and lacks the burst to keep up with faster receivers if he misses his initial punch. ... Likes to go for the intimidating hit and will occasionally fail to wrap up properly when dropping his shoulder into the ballcarrier. ... Plays a flashy, emotional game and can get carried away on the field, drawing penalties.

Another guy who can return kicks.  Sounds like a good guy to throw into the mix on special teams.

Also, Gruden is going nuts talking about how good McNabb is.

UPDATE:  Ingram is the pick at 153.  Certainly not a safe choice. 

Here's the scouting report: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/502391

The good part:

If he is fully recovered from knee problems, Ingram has the ability to be a nice second-day draft find for a team looking for a motion back to stretch the field.

The scary part:

Questions about his health are justified, but more questions need to be asked about his desire for the game before someone can invest anything more than a mid-to-late round pick on him. Those that compare him to Dallas Clark (Indianapolis) or Vernon Davis (49ers) need to check his dedication level first.

- - - - - -

The Eagles really must be feeling pretty good about their roster right now.  They're letting an awful lot of potentially useful players slide by.

The Hobbs pick-up is a little surprising.  By reputation at least, he's struggled a bit since coming into the league.  He's especially not great at matching up against larger receivers.  Which means we've got three possible explanations:

1. Patriots made it known they were moving him and the Eagles saw him as nothing more than good depth.
2. They're ready to move on from Demps as their kick returner and they can afford to carry another corner who averaged 28.5 yards per kickoff return last year.
3. They like the way Hobbs can match up with the smaller quicker guys and don't have a corner who really excels in that area. 

All three are possible.  Maybe even a combo platter of all of the above.  It will be interesting to see what Reid says.

Now about that tight end...

James Casey is still available, as is Cornelius Ingram.  There's a contrast for you.

Draft Day Two Open Thread

I think I speak for all of us when I say:  Welcome to the 2009 NFL Draft, Dallas.  Glad to see you've started making some actual picks.

Things will probably be a bit less real-time on my end today, especially once we're done in the third.  Every year I get excited about these fifth-round types and every year maybe one of them makes the team.

Thoughts on the Eagles' first day can probably go in the next post down.  Good conversation in there this morning. 

NFL Draft Open Thread (Non-Eagles Edition)

In an effort to keep some order to today's proceedings, let's split the comments up a bit.  This is a good place for anything non-Eagles related.  For example, when the Raiders take Percy Harvin, you all can offer condolences here.

When it looks like the Eagles are about to make a pick, I'll open a thread specifically for our guy.  As we all know, that could be any time from 6ET to tomorrow morning.

Also, in case you haven't seen it yet, Jason is actually at the draft today.  He's also got a Twitter feed going, and while I don't understand Twitter for 99.9% of its uses, short updates while covering live events make very, very good sense to me.  I'll be checking them out.

Totally Mind-Blowing Draft Statistic

Nine out of ten times, when you start digging through the numbers to confirm something you see on the field, the results are going to come out pretty much how you expected.  The specifics may vary a bit, but generally you have things right.

This is one of those exceptions.  And it kind of blows my mind.

Now, before we get to the punch line, I have a boatload of caveats:

• This is a tremendously flawed study.
• Using the results to argue definitively for a certain course of action would therefore not be advised.
• Pro Bowls as a proxy for top-tier performance is problematic both because of reputation effects (although there's an interesting twist there) and the increasing impact of idiotic fan voting.
• Just counting "Pro Bowl players" ignores the distinction between a guy who has one great year and a guy who books his Hawaii flights a year in advance.
• Finally, because we're just looking at Pro Bowls, we're missing a lot of distinction between different players. Neither Jerome McDougle nor Brodrick Bunkley has ever made the Pro Bowl. However, those are not equivalent value picks.

With that out of the way, let's talk about what I did find. 

Wikipedia keeps a nice write-up of previous NFL drafts.  It's a handy way to find out who was taken where, and it has the added benefit of identifying guys who made the Pro Bowl, which can save an awful lot of work.

I went back and looked at the top 64 drafts picks (which covers two rounds now, but extended into the third before expansion) over a 10 year period (1997-2006) to see if we could make a probabilistic argument for how the Eagles should "spend" their top three draft picks to maximize the chances that they end up with the elite playmakers I'm always going on about, or what Bob Ford called "officers"rather than foot soldiers in a post I completely agreed with until his pickup truck analogy.*

My argument for the draft was that the Eagles have shown themselves to be -- at best -- maybe slightly better than league average when it comes to picking top-tier guys, so the idea that they can somehow beat the system by identifying hidden gems in unlikely places probably doesn't hold much water.  Therefore, they should use their picks in such a way that the odds suggest they'll be most successful in finding the over-the-hump talent they need.

It's either Rich Hofmann or Phil Sheridan (sorry) who's constantly arguing that the only really consistent place to find Pro Bowlers in the draft is the top half of the first round, so when you have a chance to draft there, you need to take it.  Clearly the same logic applies to the rest of the first round vis-a-vis the second, and so on down the line.

Except, and this is the cool part, it actually doesn't.  At least the way we're measuring it here (but remember the caveats). 

Here are three charts showing the percentage or Pro Bowlers in different "slices" of the draft.  I used five, ten and 15 pick buckets, but they all really show the same thing:

You have to admit, even granting (one more time) the limitations of this analysis, that's pretty striking.  For two years we've been killing the Eagles for not spending their low first-round picks on some playmakers -- and it turns out your chances of finding a Pro Bowler are almost entirely equal everywhere from the 16th to the 45th pick. 

I'm pretty shocked by this.  I'm assuming Gabe is, too, since I sent him these charts last night and he still hasn't responded to me.  He must be speechless.

Also, remember the reputation effect with Pro Bowlers mentioned above?  I mean two things by that:  1)  Once a guy gets selected, particularly at a position like offensive line, he's likely to keep going back.  But point #2 is that better teams usually get more Pro Bowlers, just because the guys who aren't on national television every week have a hard time getting noticed.  Which is why it's double surprising that low first-round picks -- generally made by good teams -- aren't producing more Pro Bowlers than high second-round picks -- which are generally made by bad teams.

Here's another chart, just because I have it.  Ten years of drafts, the green blocks are Pro Bowlers.  Heavy lines delineate rounds one and two (with current 32 picks), narrow lines are five pick brackets:

 

Last interesting note:  if you take the probabilities above and match them up to where the Eagles drafted during that period, you find that they "should" have ended up with about 5.2 Pro Bowlers from picks in the top 64.  They actually have seven.  (Sadly, Brian Dawkins was the 65th pick his year.)

- - - - - -

*My divergence: I don't think the Eagles have specifically chosen the pickup trucks, it's just worked out that way.

Great List of Visits

MTC has the definitive list of Eagles' pre-draft visits today.

There's some disagreement here about the importance of those things, so it will be interesting as a reference to go back after the draft and check it out again.

Guys on that list I'm intrigued by:

• The tight ends, Cook and Ingram.  I've written about Cook a lot, but Ingram is interesting in that he fits the Eagles' search for undervalued talent.  He's a heck of an athlete, but that knee injury and questions about his size could see him slide a bit.
• Pat White.  The question with White is if he'll get drafted about where he should get drafted (you tell me), or if teams are going to fall in love with him so much that he ends up being another Matt Jones type, whose potential as an athlete has him up too high.
• Brown and McCoy.  Would love to know how they did in pass-catching drills.
• Vontae Davis.  Yeah, I still think he's in play if he's there at #21.
• Eugene Monroe.  Maybe the one guy the Eagles would be willing to package both first-rounders together to pick.  And I'm not sure we could criticize that move.

So I Guess We Go Back To Talking About The Draft?

Well that was all rather anticlimactic, wasn't it?

I guess the good news is Tra Thomas might be heading back to Philadelphia, thereby completely destroying my prediction that he would be the one with options, while Dawk would have little choice but to return.  Good one, Derek.

(At least we'll get to read this summer on PE.com how the Eagles have "improved" their offensive line by retaining Thomas.  I always love that stuff.)

So since we're getting nothing to chew on out of free agency -- and if you look around the league, it's not just the Eagles who have put the brakes on after the initial surge -- let's talk a little bit more about the draft.  I'd planned to write up some post-Combine thoughts last week anyway, but then things spun up with Dawk and Tra and all those guys and draft talk pretty much went out the window.

A few post-Combine thoughts:

Something was screwy with the 40 times.  I've been having this discussion with a number of people over email, so pardon me if I can't remember what I've written here and am repeating myself, but something seemed very off with the "official" times in the 40-yard dash this year.  If you compare the Combine results from 2008 and 2009, it really just doesn't look like there's as much speed in this year's draft, overall.  And a number of guys who were projected to run really fast times ended up with some pedestrian numbers.

I'd been guessing the issue was either drugs (better testing?) or perhaps the new surface at Lucas Oil Stadium (versus the RCA Dome), but someone may have a better answer:

Speaking of Maybin, what was up with the 40 times at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine? First of all, some of the unofficial times seemed slow. But then, all of the official times were a tenth slower than the unofficial ones! Mike Mayock even commented about the slow times:

"I'm going to tell you something. The guys that I sit with at the end of the 40-yard dash. I guarantee you, they trust their own handhelds, and the handhelds were quicker for whatever reason this year."

I don't know if the equipment was malfunctioning or if the guy in charge of the official times was on LSD, but something was definitely wrong. In fact, I created a thread about it called: Mitch King Ran Faster Than...

Which thread states:

Mitch King ran faster than...

Larry English
Maurice Evans
Brandon Williams
Matt Shaugnessy
Paul Kruger

Just as fast as...

Aaron Maybin
Robert Ayers

Seriously... 310-pound Dorrell Scott ran an "official" 4.92. Aaron Maybin, at 249, ran an "official" 4.90. WTF is that?

Unofficially, btw, Maybin was 4.78 and Scott was 4.90

I'm telling you... I don't know if it's going to come out or not, but I really think someone screwed up the official 40s.

The beauty of this alternate theory is that it can explain why we might see differences from player to player.  After all, if the track really were slow for everyone, then Darrius Heyward-Bey's time of 4.30 would have to be adjusted down to absurd levels.

Speaking of Darrius Heyward-Bay.  The guy's 6-3, just ran a 4.3 40, and supposedly looked great in all the position drills.  The knock on him is that he's not a polished player who still needs work on things like route-running.  But considering the Eagles would only need him to run straight-line routes for a couple years, that shouldn't hurt him much here.

I know we have a fair number of DC-based readers around here.  Anyone a Maryland fan and can give us some background on this guy?  Is he a workout wonder or did he really show up in games?

And I'm not suggesting you should plant evidence or anything, but if you do fear the turtle, anything you could do to depress his draft stock would be greatly appreciated...

Still not sold on Pettigrew.  He's even slower than they said he was.  Everything we're hearing about this guy just makes it seem like he'd be a GREAT second-round pick.  I'm starting to get this funny feeling that a lot of NFL teams are going to feel that way in April. 

What hurts Pettigrew even more is that the rest of the tight end class is deep.  None of these guys seems to be able to block, but there are a half-dozen prospects on this list who could share time immediately with Celek.

Cook's obviously the guy I've been pumping, but I must admit whenever I read about him I hear faint echoes of "Elllllll Jaaaaaaayyyyy SSSSSmmmmiiiiiith" in the background.

Michael Crabtree is in play.  I'm NOT arguing that he's the guy here.  He may be, he may not be, whatever.  All I'm saying is that the draft is shaping up in such a way that he's attainable.

Going by the "new" NFL trade chart, the Eagles' two first-round picks are worth somewhere between the #4 and #5 selections in the draft.  Now look at the top five:

1. Detroit -- Can't take a wide receiver without fans burning down what's left of the city.

2. St. Louis -- Could take him, but have a gaping hole at LT and a couple options to fill it.  (This could totally depend on what Detroit does.  If the Lions go with a QB, St. Louis gets first pick of OTs.  If Detroit goes OT, then maybe St. Louis has to look around a bit more.)

3. Kansas City -- So many, many holes.  If they're convinced he's the guy, that might not matter, but it doesn't seem like a New England-y way to build a team.

4. Seattle -- Just signed Housh.

5. Cleveland -- Only if they trade Braylon.  And in that case, we might not care about Crabtree any more.

Again, I'm not saying we should throw it all in and grab Crabtree -- I'm just saying it's an option.

There seems to be a ton of talent in this draft.  I know we won't know for sure until a couple years from now, but this draft seems loaded at a bunch of positions.  That's certainly one argument for holding on to the two first-round picks.

But consider just one thing.  If the Eagles were so convinced that later first-round picks were necessary to build a team, would they have traded those away the last two years?

Finally, and this should really go without saying, but the Eagles aren't drafting Beanie Wells.  Yes, he's better than Tony Hunt.  By a fair amount.  But he's the same kind of player as Tony Hunt.

If the Eagles are going to go shopping for a tailback in the first round, it's not going to be for a guy who can complement Brian Westbrook. 

It's going to be for a guy who can replace him. 

With that said, the Eagles really may have to look for that guy in the first / top of the second round.  Not loving a lot below the first tier here.

Good Tight End Stuff

Just making sure everyone saw this item from Domo today:

The Eagles will be scrutinizing the tight-end crop at next weekend's scouting combine in Indianapolis. They have no intention of bringing back L.J. Smith and would like to find a decent blocking tight end in this year's draft to complement Brent Celek. The problem is, beyond top-rated Brandon Pettigrew, of Oklahoma State, there aren't many tight ends who can block.

"It's really tough to find guys who can block and catch," Eagles general manager Tom Heckert said. "There's a bunch of guys we like that are really good receiving tight ends. But I'm looking at our [draft] board right now, and there are four [tight ends] that probably will go in the first four rounds that don't even line up on the line of scrimmage at all.

"You look at the kid from Missouri [Chase Coffman], he never, ever lines up on the line of scrimmage. You don't even get to see him block. With all of the spread offenses in college, to find a guy who can do both things is almost impossible. You look at their athletic ability and the receiving ability and you just hope they'll give you something as a blocker. In our offense, we want more of a receiver than a blocker. But by the same token, you've got to be able to block a little bit, or it's just going to be a situation where you're not going to be able to run the ball."

The Eagles have made it clear to Celek that he needs to improve as a blocker.

"I think he blocked a little bit better last year [2007] than he did this year," Heckert said. "But he had some minor injuries. He knows the situation. He knows he has to become a pretty good blocker. And I think he will."

And this one from "Moving the Chains":

Q: Who are the top tight ends on your board? In your most recent mock draft, you had the Eagles taking Jared Cook in the second round. Tell us a little about him.
 
A: The only tight end who carries a first-round grade this year is Brandon Pettigrew from Oklahoma St., who could be an option for Philadelphia at No. 21 if he lasts that long.  He isn't a dynamic receiving threat like Kellen Winslow or Vernon Davis, but he is a very good all-around tight end who can contribute as both a pass-catcher and blocker.  After Pettigrew, there is a group of six tight ends who are all known more for their receiving skills and should be taken in the second, third or fourth round, with the order still to be determined by the Scouting Combine and Pro Day workouts.  They are Jared Cook of South Carolina, Shawn Nelson of Southern Miss, Chase Coffman of Missouri, Cornelius Ingram of Florida, James Casey of Rice and Travis Beckum of Wisconsin.  Cook in particular is a very intriguing prospect.  He actually began his college career as a wide receiver and if he works out as well as expected (4.4's at 6-6 and 242 pounds?), his stock could soar. Nelson really helped himself with a strong showing at the Senior Bowl while Ingram is a wild card because he missed his entire senior season with a knee injury.  Most feel that overall tight end is one of the strongest positions in this draft.

Lastly, this is why Spadaro's job is tougher than it looks:

Make no mistake, the Eagles would be smart to add to the position. Smith would certainly seem to be a candidate to leave in free agency, and Matt Schobel has not been much a part of the offense in his time here.

How many drafts do you think he had to go through to find such a carefully formulated way of saying Schobel sucks and the Eagles have attached a jetpack to LJ's butt?

Blogger Mock Draft

It's a bit early for these things, since we haven't even had the combine or campus workouts yet, but I'm participating in a cross-blogger mock draft organized by a Seahawks blogger out west. 

I just made the Eagles first pick and, given the discussion here over the last week or so, the selection likely won't be that surprising.

I have to say, if the draft actually shook out this way, I'd be very, very excited.

Another pick upcoming, of course.  Not sure when that will happen, but when it does I'll discuss the reasons why I didn't select a couple other guys people are excited about. 

Is DeSean Jackson Just Ted Ginn?

I had kind of an unsettling thought last night.  What if DeSean Jackon is really just Ted Ginn in a different college uniform?

I should explain.  For three years, I watched Ted Ginn play at Ohio State and I thought he was one of the most overrated players in college football.  Sure, he was fast.  You had to be careful kicking the ball to him.  But as a receiver, he didn't seem like anything special.

I know he kind of owned Michigan, but in three years against Penn State he accumulated a whopping seven catches for 78 yards and no touchdowns.  Great straight line speed, dangerous with the ball in his hands, but no route-running ability and easy to keep in check if you stayed disciplined.

In fact, last July I wrote this in my (yes, imaginary) mailbag:

Which rookie will have the biggest impact on the 2007 season? (Drew, Orlando)

... Keep an eye on Teddy Ginn though.  If there's one guy out there poised to change the way an entire fanbase thinks about its team, he's the one.  Or maybe he won't suck.  There's always a chance

So yeah, not a big fan.  Although I know not everyone agrees.  This Dolphins blogger has a good long post evaluating Ginn's rookie season.  (And it's worth reading that post if only to set realistic expectations about what NFL receivers are usually able to contribute in their rookie seasons.)  At least there's some room for optimism if you're a Miami fan -- although mostly because the team can't be any worse from this point forward so Ginn probably will have to have better numbers by default.   

But back to Jackson, take a look at the respective scouting reports coming out of college and tell me who's who:

Player #1

POSITIVES: Game-breaking skill player with home-run speed. Quick releasing off the line, has opponents playing back on their heels, and consistently stretches the field. Possesses a terrific burst of speed and runs to daylight if given the slightest space of open field.

NEGATIVES: Not big, and beaten out in physical battles. Easily brought down at the initial point of attack. Has trouble handling the jam.

ANALYSIS: A track and field sprinter who translates his natural speed onto the football field, [Player 1] is a vertical receiver who loosens up the defense. Must get stronger, but he's a game-breaking threat every time he steps onto the field.

And:

Player #2

POSITIVES: Game-breaking receiver with home run speed. Quick off the line, immediately gets to top speed, and possesses the second gear. Easily makes the difficult catch downfield running at full speed and not afraid to go up in a crowd for the reception. Shows excellent focus, looks the pass into his hands, and makes the reception away from his frame. Plays with good balance and body control and gets vertical to grab the high pass. Effectively positions himself and uses his frame to protect the ball. Extends and offers the quarterback a nice target. Adjusts to the errant throw and makes the reception in stride. Elusive handling the ball and can run to daylight if given the slightest bit of open space. Possesses soft hands and plucks the ball from the air.

NEGATIVES: Lacks the big frame and loses out in battles. Must be more disciplined running routes, as he tends to float out of breaks. Durability has been an issue the past two years.

ANALYSIS: [Player 2] is a tremendous athlete with rare speed and the ability to impact games in a variety of ways. He strikes fear in opponents and his ability to beat defenders downfield is highly respected. [Player 2] must physically mature and improve his playing strength, yet he should produce in a variety of ways at the next level.

Pretty similar, yeah?  And no, I didn't edit those other than to take out the names. 

...

I know the suspense is killing you ... so I'll tell you that #1 is Ginn and #2 is Jackson.

The good news is that Jackson's report talks more about how well he catches the ball.  That was a concern with Ginn coming out of college, but other than that, we're talking about the same guy.  Except that Ginn is an inch and a half taller, 10 pounds heavier and somewhat faster (according to their 40 times). 

Hmmm...

I guess the good news is that the Dolphins drafted Ginn at #9 and the Eagles took Jackson much, much later.  That's important.  On the other hand, I'm not convinced Ginn is ever going to be a #1 receiver in this league, so what does that mean for Jackson?

- - - - - -

Open discussion time: 

My brother watches more college football than I do.  When I sent this idea over to him, his response was: "I always thought Jackson was a more complete receiver than Ginn. It didn’t seem like he was just a track star. But I’ve only seen him play a couple times." 

What's the rest of Eagledom think?  Anyone out there feel like they watched enough of both guys in college to form a good opinion of the ways in which they're different?

For comparison, here's a good site with the college statistics of both Jackson and Ginn.

Eagles fans want to know.

Remember, He Gets Paid For This

Jason's angry, I'm just laughing.

Because the Eagles are the only team ever in the league that hasn't hit on 100 percent of its draft picks and you should be TOTALLY PISSED AS A FAN when fifth-round draft picks aren't quite good enough to make it in the NFL.