Cowboys Prewind

I had a dream last night I was interviewing Sean McDermott before the Redskins game.  (And I mean right before.  They had to call timeout on the first play because he was late getting onto the field.)

I specifically remember asking him why they were so passive against Brees and the Saints.  I don't remember his answer.  I also asked him who would be starting at free safety that week and he shouted:  "The Big MV!" 

Macho Victor?

Anyway, based on how the last dream worked out, Sean Jones should be starting for awhile.

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No rewind this week for a variety of factors, including other sport and social obligations, but mostly because I just wasn't feeling it.  I've still got that game on the DVR, and will likely get back to it by the second game, but this week I was a lot more interested in looking at the Cowboys. 

When they struggled early, I kind of wrote them off as one of those dangerous teams that won't be a contender in the end because they're on year three of the bad coaching disintegration.  (It took Switzer a fourth year, but he was starting with one of the most talented teams ever.) 

Now, however, they're 5-2 and tied for first in the division.  They haven't played the strongest schedule, but really, who in this division has?  And even as the bustiest bust of all time continues to whine and moan and drop passes, they've got a couple other guys on the team stepping up and making big plays.  All of a sudden, this is an intriguing match-up.

I DVR the DirecTV short cuts each week for the Eagles' upcoming opponents.  Usually I just watch them once to get a better handle on the other team's roster, although sometimes I do try to draw conclusions. 

This week, I watched the Cowboys game a few times.  They're an interesting team, with a mix of good and bad things.  Here's what I saw:

The problem with Roy Williams is Roy Williams.  It's not Tony Romo.  Sure, a couple bad throws were on the quarterback, but watch what happened on this play:

That's a guy not being where he's supposed to be.  My guess?  Williams was supposed to run the fade, but saw the CB was trying to take that away and decided to break it underneath.  In some offenses, with some QB/WR combos, that's totally fine.  Didn't look great here.  And that wry look on Romo's face after the play is something that popped up a couple times on the afternoon.

Here's another one.  Williams is actually supposed to be running a slant on this play.  It totally looks like a "get the ball to Roy" call.  And yet he does such a terrible job on the route that when Romo tries to back shoulder him -- because he sees where the corner is -- the defender still gets a hand on it:

Romo didn't have a great game against the Seahawks, missing on more open looks than he usually does, but if a QB is hitting most of his receivers in stride, and then wildly missing the biggest one of all, it suggests the problem isn't with the QB.

Romo took TO's crap for years because he needed him.  He doesn't need Roy Williams.

Speaking of Romo, the Seahawks blitzed him all day and he didn't seem fazed.  Romo has a good clock in his head.  If the blitz is coming, he unloads pretty quickly, but if he has time he'll be patient and take his shots.  Compare the numbers here to his overall passer rating, and it's pretty clear he's been fine either way.

With that said, I'd still blitz the hell out of him, because he does have a tendency to loft balls to spots when the pressure's coming and because a four-man front -- if it gets stretched out -- gives bigger lanes for him to scramble out of the pocket when nothing else is there.

The Seahawks had some success running right up the gut.  They couldn't do too much of it because they fell behind early, but the interior of Dallas' defensive line looked like it was attackable.

This matches what FO says in their defensive line stats.  Don't even think about running outside at DeMarcus Ware (1.14 yds/carry to left end, that's almost comical), but the middle is there for the taking, especially over right tackle.

Dallas seemed to be playing more 4-3 than usual, although with the short cuts feature it's often hard to identify personnel, so it may just have been a lot of nickel.  Still, I wonder if that's opening up a bit more room in the middle.

As for DeMarcus Ware's "side" -- that will probably be a flexible concept this weekend.  He moved around some against the Seahawks, but I imagine he'll do so even more against us, in an effort to get matched up on Winston Justice.

Of course, the guy I can't figure out is Anthony Spencer.  He looked like he was giving the Seattle right tackle fits all game, but he was kept off the stat sheet, except for two passes defensed.

His speed is a little scary to watch.  I hope WJ is ready for that.  On the other hand, the fact that he's flying upfield every play might help explain those RT rushing numbers in the previous bullet.

Dallas has a jacked kicker.  Seems worth mentioning that the guy's almost 230 pounds.  Akers is not going to like being the nerdy one this week.

The one guy who's really scary?  This won't surprise you.  It's Felix Jones.

I knew the guy was fast, but I was shocked to be reminded of just how big he is.  That's really what makes him deadly, at least for the first 10-15 yards.  Then once he's run through a couple arm tackles, no one's catching him in the secondary.

One of his runs, and you can call it bad tackling, but it looks more like a video game:

Another one:

If Asante tries to tackle him one-on-one, it's going to look like one of those exploding golf balls. 

Barber's still effective as a short-yardage guy, but he's not going to kill you for big gains because he just doesn't have the speed to run away from people.  Felix has to be the number one priority this weekend.

Our biggest advantage?  This is still a Wade Phillips coached team.  Which means you're going to see plays like this (again, watch the Romo frustration as 10 guys go right and his back goes left):

And this:

Hope we see a lot of those on Sunday night.

Bonus Seahawks note:  Edge looked like he was running in sand all game.  They cut him on Tuesday, he's probably still somewhere short of the front door as he makes his way out of their practice complex.

Eagles - Giants Game Preview: It ’ s cold outside, and we wouldn ’ t have it any other way

Of course the Birds would have to play the Giants.  Of course.  As if it wasn't offensive enough that the Giants won the Super Bowl last year, now they have a chance (a four-point chance at home with a bye week in the mix) to end the Eagles' season.  It's been a glorious and serendipitous couple weeks for the Eagles and their fans, but now we've to deal with the defending champs.  And I've signed up to watch it in person.

Certainly I can feel emboldened by our previous trip to the Meadowlands.  Sure, the intensity on the field and in the stands was different that day, and the Giants' fans in our section were very polite (even before it was obvious that the Birds were beating them down), but that was definitely my best-ever Eagles experience in that stadium.

I do not expect a repeat of that experience today, either from the Eagles or the locals.    This is going to be as tough as it gets on the field and in the stands (I swear I'm not going to lose my temper if I absorb a snowball in the head -- I will bend like the reed in the wind!).

But here's the thing -- can we ask for much more than this?  Even if the Eagles win, any matchup the following week will be a letdown.  The defending champs in rough conditions in their own soon-to-be-retired stadium?  With two of the best defensive teams in the league?  If the NFC East has its own set of Gods, surely they must be pleased by this offering.  As a fan, even if it doesn't go our way, I consider myself lucky to have a seat for this one.

(At least that's how I'm rationalizing it.  I'll be a complete lunatic by kickoff I'm sure.  At least I can say I made a commercially reasonable effort to be an adult.)

What I'll be shouting about:

I'm looking for someone to convince me that the Eagles will succeed on offense.  The weather is going to make it difficult to throw the ball effectively.  The offensive line didn't get much of a push last week against the Vikings (though admittedly the Vikings are pretty tough against the run), the starting fullback (Buckhalter) weighs as much as I do (yikes!), and the starting running back continues to limp.  Can McNabb and the wideouts be strong enough -- again -- to move the chains?  That might be asking a lot.  I dunno.  It's a bit disheartening.

Speaking of, Jon Runyan doesn't look good.  And I don't just mean because of his hirsute appearance or cretinous manner of discourse.  He didn't move well against the Vikings last week, and I can't imagine he'll move any better in 28-degree weather.  But hey, he's only facing Justin Tuck, that shouldn't be a problem.  We can only assume that Runyan will have an ungodly cocktail of painkillers pumped into his bloodstream before the game and that he'll hobble through it again.  Don't worry, Jon.  Walking in your forties is completely overrated.

And then, the apocalypse scenario.  Runyan or one of the guards gets hurt.  Mike McGlynn is on IR.  Thus would Winston Justice enter the game.  That will be the point where my wife has permission to roofie me for the remainder of the game.

First tackle.  First foul.  First shot.  First goal (1).  So last week it was Brian Dawkins who established the appropriate level of violence with his brutal shot on Adrian Peterson.  Who's going to step up with a big hit early this week?  Feels like it's Sheldon Brown's turn.

First tackle.  First foul.  First shot.  First goal (2).  Given my general level of concern about the offense's ability to succeed against the Giants, it's extremely important that the Eagles survive the inevitable rush of enthusiasm from New York in the first few minutes of the game.  Going down by more than 10 points in the first half could be deadly.

I wish I could be more excited about the special teams.  After the Minnesota game, I assumed that special teams would be an advantage for the Birds.  Then I remembered how David Akers is completely spooked by the Meadowlands and how multiple field goals were blocked.  Still, this will be the rookies' place to shine today.  We've come to expect it from DeSean Jackson; wouldn't it be lovely if we got something special from Demps?  The Giants struggle in their kickoff coverage -- it could happen.

Things that do not worry me.  The Giants' passing offense.  I imagine that the Eagles' secondary thinks they can handle the Giants' wideouts, and I imagine that they'd be correct.  And I'd also say I'm especially emboldened in this prediction after pulling my little stats in defense of Tavaris Jackson the other day.

Things that might worry us.  As well as the Eagles have defended the run over the past two months (really since the first Giants game), I still think they'll have a tough time of it versus the G-Men today.  The Birds didn't get a week off, and it's cold outside -- you can imagine them wearing down a bit.

Do we have bandwidth for one more superhero performance from 36?  It is unlikely that the Eagles will be able to win without a superhuman effort from the gimpy 36 Chambers of Brian Westbrook.  Westbrook had enough for the Eagles to win last week, but he didn't look consistently strong throughout the game.  I can't imagine that the Eagles win without Westbrook making at least one big play.  The nice thing about Westbrook is that he completely terrifies Giants fans.  In the parking lot a month ago, more than one person was still haunted by his punt return in 2003 -- and then he goes and scores twice that afternoon.  Seriously, he has them spooked.  Also, if the wideouts don't catch the ball, the Birds are cooked.

Hopefully they'll score before they get to the 20.  Things haven't looked so good in the red zone of late.  Huh.  Guess they'll have to score from 21+ yards out!

Actual prediction.  Rational brain, you go away now, and stop reminding me how healthy the Giants are and how the Eagles have a pretty limited ceiling on offense, and how the conditions favor the rested, ball-control offense.  Instead, suggest that the Eagles' defense really might be that good, and that Andy Reid and Jim Johnson are up to the challenge today.  I can't imagine either team making it much past 20 points; let's hope the Eagles are on the friendly side of that number.  Luckily, we can all rest assured that churches throughout the Delaware valley are filled with young men and boys ignoring a series of horrific wars around the globe and are silently praying for an Eagles victory.  And really, who are we to argue with the power of prayer?  Eagles 17, Giants 16.

GO BIRDS.

Eagles - Vikings Game Preview: don ’ t pretend you know what we ’ re getting today

Well none of us are going to pretend we expected this.  Sure, we could envision this, but to expect this would have been a bit strong after the Washington game.  The Eagles are actually in the playoffs.

So, are they any damn good?

That's the thing about the Eagles game today.  We don't actually know what the narrative of this season is yet.  Is is the "Eagles go on a run like 2006 (Washington game is 'just a blip')" or is it "Eagles stumble into playoffs, but are who we thought they were"?  If they win today, many many sins will be forgiven -- even if they lose the following week.  Then they're good but not good enough, and that's a lot better than we thought we'd get in mid-November.  If they lose today, especially if they do so in one of the ways to which we've become accustomed, well, then they were essentially last year's team with a better punt returner: good on paper, but bad when it matters.

I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Eagles didn't show up at all today, but I don't think it'll happen.  Rather, I think that there's a compelling reason why it might not happen: the Eagles defense.  But more about that in a bit.

What I'll be shouting about in re: today's big Wild Card Game:

Your storylines.  It's a little overwhelming (and by overwhelming, I mean that it makes writing a preview really challenging) when your team makes the playoffs in re: the clear national storylines.  As in, (1) Jim Johnson versus Tavaris Jackson (must include reference to total available quantity of blitzes), (2) Can the suddenly elite Eagles' defense contain Adrian Peterson, (3) Teacher-versus-Pupil.  What's sweet is that I feel good about each of those.  And the thing that worries me most is just that they go out and throw it 48 times.  Andy Reid, you haunt me!

Storylines we refuse to consider.  You're not allowed to say, "This is an extremely close game in simulations with the Eagles winning just under 51 percent of the simulations. The key to the game is turnovers," in an article entitled "Intel Report" on ESPN.  Generally speaking, I think blathermonkeys should be fired on the spot for uttering the phrase, "The key to the game is turnovers."  The key to scoring is touchdowns and field goals.  The key to defense is tackling.  Yes.  It's all true!

Fan storyline that's a bit odd.  I assume most of you are like me in that you feel good about defense and special teams, and have no idea what we're getting from the offense.  It's worth noting that said offense set the franchise record for points scored...and I still don't think we're remotely irrational for not trusting them.

The last time these guys played in January.  The future Mrs. BountyBowl got us tickets for the game as a Christmas gift, circa December 2004.  This was a very clever strategy of hers for currying my affections.  Seemed to have worked out for everyone.  F***ing cold that day, though!

Hip, whatever.  The Birds paid a lot of money for Asante Samuel.  Mr. Samuel has traditionally been very successful in elimination games (save for an awkward moment along the sideline last February).  It'd be lovely if he felt compelled to demonstrate his penchant for the big moment against the Vikings.  Also, I'm pretending that the injury thing is an illusion.

Speaking of, he doesn't need to play.  L.J. Smith has his impending free agency to worry about.  Let's cut the guy some slack and let him get healthy.  It's for the best.

The CamelCased One.  What a wonderful opportunity for young Master DeSean to go out and demonstrate he has a feel for the big moment (and redeem himself for the Washington game) than to make a play against the absolute worst punt coverage team in the league?  Very tempting, no?  We'd hate to think the kid had issues with the spotlight.

Speaking of wideouts.  Both Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown made circus catches against the Vikings when the Eagles played there last year.  A similar effort this afternoon would augur well for the Birds' chances.

Jared Allen is scary, though not as scary as Demarcus Ware.  I think Allen will be slightly more dangerous than Ware was last week if only because Ware's team completely quit.  But if the Birds can handle Ware, why not Allen?  (That said, I think Allen is excellent.)

Adrian Peterson is scary, though not as scary as Brian Westbrook.  Sure, AP ("Purple Jesus") is a megastar guy who has a chance to be the best back of his generation.  But in a game that matters I feel extremely good about a Brian Westbrook, and not just because he might be the single smartest guy on the field.  He's also good at not getting tackled!

Eagles thoughts from during the Cards - Falcons game.  While I know it's not for everyone, it sure looks like you can run your offense through a couple dominant wideouts.  Those guys are good.

Eagles thoughts from during the Bolts - Colts game.  This was actually painful to watch for me, if only because there were so many little plays that almost but didn't quite go the Chargers' way (at least until the coin toss!).  Lots of dropped picks, bad bounces, that sort of thing.  It's rare that I can feel like an Eagles fan watching another team.  Thanks, Chargers!

Things I'm glad I haven't thought about in weeks.  How about that David Akers!  Doesn't seem to be struggling any more.  And he's got to feel good about a dome.

No one believes in you, Donovan.  I hope Mr. McNabb is on his laptop this morning reading the InterWebs just so he knows that NO ONE BELIEVES IN HIM.  Nope.  Not a one.  And the ONLY WAY HE CAN STICK IT TO THE FICKLE DOUBTERS is to play the game of his life.  That's the only way you can really get us, Donovan.  Seriously.  It'll totally piss us all off, because we don't really like you and don't want you to succeed.

Cardboard Box.  One of the things that makes me feel confident about the game today is that I think the Eagles actually will get the speed of the playoff game.  That is, there are a few guys on the field for the Eagles who won't be intimidated by the moment and will come out playing fast.  Mostly I'm thinking that Brian Dawkins and/ or Sheldon Brown isn't going to be afraid to endanger themselves in order to announce their presence with authority in the first few minutes of the game.  And now, because I can't help it, is the link.  Treat yourself.

Game prediction. I think that the defense is going to show up this week for the Eagles, and that if the Birds can get it to 20 points they should be chill.  The problem is that I can't really speak for the offense.  I think they could be awful.  I think it's important that the Eagles wide receivers play well.  That means getting open and it means catching the ball.  Eagles 20, Vikings 13.

Eagles - Skins Game Preview: of late-season heroics and chips on shoulders

Anyone else feeling set up for spirit-crushing disaster this afternoon?

The this-is-2006-all-over-again meme has what looks to be a battered and reeling Washington Redskins team as a brief layover ahead of next week's season-ending Boss Fight against the Cowboys.  Sure, the Redskins are a decent team, but they appear to be collapsing, and are doing all sorts of dysfunctional stuff (players calling out the coach, etc etc).  With the Birds playing so well of late, it looks like this week's game should be more than manageable for the Eagles.

Certainly that's the narrative we'd all prefer.  The problem is that this is a division game, and I get the sense (mostly due to Chris Cooley's blog) that the Redskins really don't like the Eagles.  I think the Skins will come to play today.  And I think that means that this will be a brutal, anxiety-filled affair.

My bullet points and storylines ahead of the game:

Chips on shoulders and other cheap motivational tactics.  I really can't get enough of all this chip-on-shoulder talk.  First it was Dunavin, then it was Reggie Brown?  Sure.  Awesome.  I actually wish that the Eagles would take it a step further and start rocking the none-of-you-people-respect-us thing.  That would work quite well, actually, in that, um, we didn't really respect the Eagles during the dark interregnum of the Cincy-and-Balmore fortnight.

Injury report.  Trent Cole has to be salivating at the prospect of getting a backup tackle this afternoon instead of massive and talented Chris Samuels.  Hopefully that will make up for the depleted Birds' receiving corps and suddenly third-string offensive line, where it looks like Mike McGlynn will replace Todd Herremans.  We like the rumblings about how McGlynn likes to "play to the whistle" (="play dirty"), but we'd prefer if he'd pipe down about the Penguins.

Of FedEx Field affairs of yesteryear.  I like that the Eagles traditionally play well on the road against Washington. That includes a 7-2 record over their last nine there as well as the best single play that the Birds turned in last year.  I've only been to FedEx Field once, for the late-season game in 2003 (the Eagles cruised but Westbrook tore his triceps, essentially dooming the season), and I found it to be a wholly disagreeable place.  $25 to park in some office park and THEN I had to take a bus to the stadium?  BOOOOO.  What's nice is that I think B-West treats FedEx Field like an extended home game and Dunavin certainly doesn't seem intimidated by it.

Speaking of Skins games.  That game on October 5 was humiliating.  I felt personally defrauded by how unpleasant a day that was at Lincoln Financial Field.  Hopefully the guys on the team feel the same way.  I can only assume that the run defense will turn in a better effort this afternoon.  My nightmare scenario today is a repeat of that day, though: lots of back-breaking third downs, patient running from the Skins, and a spotty/ pass-heavy offense from the Birds.  The thought of Jason Campbell methodically converting third-and-3s is horrifying.

Who I got.  In lieu of any further recycling of this week's sports pages, I'll do some predicting.  While I do think that the Redskins will show up for work this week and won't half-ass it, I don't think the last couple weeks of Eagles games are bogus.  That is, I think the Eagles are playing the run better on defense (and playing great defense across the board) and that Donovan McNabb just might be on a mission of vengeance.  I expect some legit NFC East pushing and/ or shoving this afternoon, and I expect the Eagles will be standing at the end: Eagles 23, Redskins 13.

Eagles - Browns Game Preview: The Audacity of a Little Town Called Keeping Hope Alive

Among the many positive outcomes following last Sunday's trip to the Meadowlands was an exciting mobile computing scenario whereby we bought tickets for tonight's game on the car ride home from New Jersey.  We'd been monitoring tickets all week (cheap these days!) hoping we'd have a reason to buy in (and no, we probably wouldn't have signed up for this sort of trip on a school night had this been Kevin Kolb's first start).  The Eagles obliged, and the credit card was thusly handed to the good folks at Stubhub.

Given that we're taking the field trip down to Philly this evening and we still have the pesky day job, see below for an unfortunately abbreviated game preview.  What I'll be shouting about:

Run-The-Ball-Andy meme in full effect.  With rain now in the forecast (booooo), there's even more reason to expect that the Birds will follow their success on the ground over the past few weeks with a focus on the running game.  FO has the Browns at 18 against the pass and 21 against the run, so there's a slight incentive to focus a bit more on running.  Also the Eagles will get Buckhalter back in the lineup.  But, well, this is Andy Reid.  We can't be shocked if the Birds come out chucking it.

Eagles Primetime Evil still lurks.  I'm not willing to believe that the Arizona game (the Eagles' first primetime win after seven nighttime losses in a row) breaks the Birds' jinx.  Equally creepy is the part where the Browns have actually played well on Monday nights this year (including a win against the Giants).  I dunno.  Let's hope that Thanksgiving was the inflection point on this graph.

Frightening levels of health.  So Buck's back, Curtis is going to play post-concussion (don't worry, you didn't need those brain cells, mental health later in life is totally overrated), and pretty much everyone on defense is good to go?  Save for the right guard spot, the Eagles are very very blessed to be this healthy in Week 15.  Eliminates a lot of excuses, doesn't it.

Former Eagles on the Browns.  It'll be nice to see Hank Fraley and Donte Stallworth out there tonight.  I wonder if Fraley can offer some illuminating comments about who was and wasn't puking in the Browns' huddle?  That'd be sweet!

My own tale of imaginary football woe.  So I've got my West Coast semi-final this week, and this is the team where I went all-in on the Birds offense: I start both B-West and Dunavin.  I knew I'd be down a bunch going into tonight, but I also knew that there was the potential for a big swing with McNabb and Westbrook against a lame-duck Browns squad.  Unfortunately, my opponent scooped up the Birds' defense (he already had DeSean Jackson), neutralizing a lot of the potential drama tonight.  BOOOO.  I'm sure you all care very deeply about this.

Final score prediction.  Don't think I haven't considered the horrors of a Birds' bed-pooping this evening.  That'll be a long, wet, and miserable drive home if we don't get a result.  But even the most misanthropic Negadelphian inside me can't buy the Birds blowing this one.  I think they'll roll: Eagles 35, Browns 10.

So This Is It

Pretty much the season this weekend.  Yeah, I threw the towel in a couple weeks ago, but I'd love nothing more to be proven wrong about this group.  At least partly.

The locals do their routinely comprehensive job previewing the match-up.  And, hey, it's the Giants, so it's not like we don't already know what's coming.  But I thought I might throw a few things out there that maybe are outside the general discussion:

It's a big week for Akeem Jordan.  What we've seen so far from the new WIL starter is a guy with very good speed he does well slashing the line and attacking plays.  According to Johnson:

"I just wanted a little bit more production out of there. Not that Omar was doing that bad, I just thought we needed a little bit more speed at that position. For the coverage part of it, I thought he was a better cover guy in certain games and I'm very happy with the way he's performing right now."

He does not, however, have good size and that's going to be a concern this week against Brandon Jacobs and his fullback and offensive line.  Gaither wasn't great against the Giants, but it could be a long day for the Eagles if New York can body up the weakside of the Eagles' defense.  I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see Gaither make a second-half appearance this week.

Being better against play action and counter action is a huge factor in this game.  In the first game, the Eagles' defense definitely struggled somewhat when the Giants ran right at them.  Johnson mentioned specifically: "I think our guys have a lot more respect for the Giants running game than before we went against them...  [tight end Kevin] Boss, I think we were a little surprised by how he blocked our ends." 

I expect the Eagles to be better than that this time, but the biggest challenge they face is all the misdirection the Giants run.  All those passes out of play action and all those counter plays that get the young linebackers and speedy linemen flowing the wrong direction.  If you're looking for an early sign of how this game is going to play out, watch to see how good our recognition is when the Giants go against the flow early.

Will the blitz be back?  Both the Giants and Eagles defenses are -- by reputation -- known as aggressive units.  However, in the first game neither side really blitzed all that much, preferring instead to sit back and take away the big play (Giants) or be cautious to avoid getting gashed by big gainers when the second level blitzes right past the running back (Eagles).

The Giants may not have much reason to mix things up, but the Eagles could use a fresh approach.  I mentioned before the first game that I thought the only way to really stop Jacobs was to get to him in the backfield before he gets a head of steam.  So mix things up a little bit by attacking the line, throw off the timing, and dissuade Eli from running all those play action bootlegs by having Quintin Mikell closing in from the backside like a bat out of hell.

Chris Gocong has to do something differently this time too, right?  He was cover-your-eyes awful in Game #1.  There's no way they can have him play the same way this time.  Any time the Eagles put eight in the box, look for him to be on the LOS.

Finally, Plaxico could be the difference.  The Giants are still a better team and should absolutely be favored in this match-up, but if the Eagles can get it done, there's a good chance it will be because they didn't have to worry about the big guy.  Johnson again:

"Plaxico was a guy that you could stop, you could stop, you could stop and, like the last time we played him, he caught one pass and that was a touchdown. That's always been his forte, getting down in the red zone. It probably makes a difference in the red zone, more than anything else, as far as Plaxico. It will change somewhat, but I think you still have to realize that this team is such a well-balanced team. Just like last week without him, they had a great performance against a good Washington Redskins defense; these receivers. But, he's still a factor. The biggest factor was Plaxico down in the red zone. That's where he gave us some problems."

Birds - Cards Preview: Blackout Thursday

I've been trying to figure out how our friends in Las Vegas have decided to anoint the Eagles three-point favorites over the Cardinals on Thursday night.  On paper, I guess it makes sense: teams from the Pacific time zone haven't won in the Eastern time zone yet this season, and the Cards had a five-hour flight squeezed into a short week.  Under normal circumstances, I could understand the Birds being favorites here.

But, um, well, it sure looks like the Eagles are exploding before our eyes.  Wouldn't it be nice if the Donovan-and-Andy sideshow of the past two weeks was really just a media-driven kerfuffle, and that the underlying performance of the team really wasn't so bad?  Yeah.  Not so much.  This is as bad as the Eagles have looked since 2005, sloppy across the board, and distinctly uninterested in showing up for work.  And with Asante Samuel out against the best WR corps the Eagles have yet faced, plus what promises to be an even more feeble running game (hobbled B-West and no Buckhalter), well, it isn't lining up well for the Birds.

Essentially, tonight feels like it can go one of two ways.  Since I'm only able to envision the future in terms of the past (like most people), all I've got for you is comparisons.  The hopeful comparison is the Carolina Monday Night game from 2006, in which the Eagles hung tough against a decent Panthers team and won the game 27-24 in the closing minutes when Lito Sheppard made a play in the corner of the end zone.  Big stage, a lot on the line, about the same point in the season (a week later, but close), and it came on the heels of a horrible road loss to an AFC team (45-21 to the Colts).  That was the play and the win that kicked off the somewhat improbable run to the NFC East title and playoff win that year.

Wouldn't that be nice?

The Negadelphian comparison would be the Seattle Monday Night game from 2005.  You know, the one in the snow?  That ended 42-0?  That was the last time that the Eagles looked like they were quitting.  I really hope we don't see that tonight.

Complete sucker that I am, I'm hoping that the Eagles show us something tonight.  I am.  But even in my post-gluttony haze I can't conjure up the courage to convince myself that the Eagles are going to win tonight.  I'm just not feeling it.  Prediction: Cardinals 31, Eagles 13.

Birds - Ravens Preview: through the darkness?

Due the vagaries of out-of-state commitments and air travel scheduling, I won't be watching the Ravens game live (though I will have it on the DVR).  This might be for the best.  A week after torturing ourselves with five quarters of blah, I can't imagine many Eagles fans are fired up for this week's game.  A foul miasma appears to be floating around this team, and it's really taken the joy out of football season.

A game with the Ravens is probably the last thing the Eagles needed this week.  A tough, physical offense that wants to run the ball?  A highly rated defense that will feast on a weakened Brian Westbrook and a mentally fragile Donovan McNabb?  And the potential indignity of losing a game to a guy, John Harbaugh, that was an employee of the organization for the past 10 years?

Yeah, that doesn't feel good.

Here's to hope, then.  Here's to hoping we see something different this week: some fire, some enthusiasm, some fight.  Here's to hoping that Donovan McNabb can answer the bell and come up with something special.  Here's to hoping someone on defense does something scary and psychotic, and puts some fear into the Ravens.

If not, well, the obituaries on the Reid-McNabb era that kicked off this week will grow in both font size and justification.  Those obituaries may be inevitable this season, but I'd prefer if we waited until January for them.

Final score: Eagles 20, Ravens 10.

Giants game preview part 1 (in which BountyBowl visits other parts of the Internet)

The good people over at the Most Valuable Network invited me back to answer some questions about tonight's big game.  You're certainly welcome to click over and check it out, but I've also pasted the piece below.  It's a bit high-level, but I worked hard to nerd it up with the Prospect Theory reference:

1. To what extent is the jury still out on this Eagles team, as they head out of the bye at 5-3?

Well I'm not quite sure which jury we're talking about here, as I think that the Eagles actually have a pretty clear identity for the rest of the league: an above-average team in a tough division with a few important characters (Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, Brian Dawkins) who are familiar...and maybe a little dull at this point. For the team's fans, the team's identity is eerily and frustratingly similar to that of last year's team -- occasionally brilliant, just enough to convince you that they might amount to something, but ultimately doomed to fail at the moments that matter most. Apart from the punt returner and a little bit more luck with takeaways, there isn't much that's convinced Eagles fans that this isn't just last year's 8-8 team all over again.

So I guess said jury actually just checked in, and their answer is "Same as last year; try not to get too excited." Luckily, the jury also reminded us that the Phils just won the World Series, and so maybe we should have a wee bit more patience with the football team.

2. How would a win this week impact their postseason prospects -- and how would a loss impact their playoff positioning, as well?

We'll dispatch with the "they're all big game" disclaimers and pleasantries, and note that the Eagles are currently 7th in the NFC, and 3rd in their division -- both of which feel extremely fair for the team's performance to date. The problem with respect to playoff positioning is that the Birds are 0-2 in the NFC East. A loss to the Giants drops them to 0-3, with two of the three remaining division games on the road. Ugh. This scenario might have been slightly more palatable were both the Bucs and Panthers playing very well right now (in Wek Nine, I'll reluctantly admit that I'm now taking the NFC South seriously) -- meaning that it'll be tough to get a third NFC East team into the playoffs, especially if said team has only a middling conference record.

At the risk of being a complete Negadelphian, I'll conservatively say that a loss will be a lot more damaging than a win will be helpful. That is, if the Birds win, they're still in the mix for the division, at least on paper; if they lose, then the residents of the Delaware Valley will need to start worrying about the Tampa Bay from next week on -- yikes!

(In defense of my Negadelphianess, a couple guys won the Nobel Prize for proving that people perceive losses as more painful than wins are pleasing, so maybe I'm not completely crazy.)

3. What is the single-biggest key to Sunday's game for the Eagles, and what is your predicted final score?

In honor of Coach Reid's midsection, I'm going with the big guys with the unattractive numbers and awkward knee braces. More specifically, line play both ways. The Eagles' offensive line was humiliated by the Giants last year, and have struggled in certain (namely short-yardage) scenarios this year. They will definitely have quite a few things to worry about with the Giants' front seven. On defense, the Eagles are stout in the middle of the defensive line but a little smaller to the outside -- I expect that they'll see a lot of Brandon Jacobs to the outside. I guess I could be anxious about the standard skill-position hype (Eli versus Donovan! Plax versus Asante!), but I feel like those matchups are window-dressing; the Eagles will need to stand up to the Giants along the line of scrimmage if they have any hope of winning Sunday night.

I wish I could pick the Eagles in this game. I really do. But I'm not convinced that they'll be able to handle the Giants at the line. Maybe more importantly, I'm not convinced that the Eagles can get it done in a primetime game -- with good reason. Forgive the factoid, but they've lost seven night games in a row and 13 of their last 15. That does not inspire confidence. I think the Giants are very confident about handling the Eagles, and that that confidence will carry them in a relatively tight and nervy game: Giants 26, Eagles 20.

(BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Here's to hoping I'm very very wrong.)

The least interesting Eagles game since last December

So which Philly sports fan isn't hungover this morning?

After a crazy late-night ending for the Phightins, the Delaware Valley should be flooded with happy brain chemicals this morning.  I can't believe that I'm saying this, but the Birds game this afternoon actually feels a bit inconsequential.  I mean, I'm going to leave the comfort of my home to watch it, and I'm sure I'll get swept up in it once it starts, but, really, I'm definitely preoccupied by the baseball right now.  And I imagine I'm not the only one.

So. Eagles.  Sounds like you have something of a pass this week.  Try not to screw it up.

What I expect to shout about, abbreviated edition:

I hope the Eagles have a Pittsburgh-game-level commitment to defensing the run.  I hope the Birds are excited about  tackling Michael Turner, because they're going to spend most of the afternoon doing it.  Turner is definitely a fantasy start this week.  The Falcons are silly if they don't spend the afternoon handing off.

Similarly, I hope Andy Reid indulges himself.  Football Outsiders have the Falcons as 27th against the pass.  No one's going to complain if McNabb throws the ball 35 times.

Welcome back, Kevin Curtis!  I hope it's a big day for the Birds' wideouts, Curtis included.  I hope they don't just ease him back in -- none of us would hate a deep ball to Curtis.

The ostensible best player on the team.  Very curious to see how many snaps Westbrook plays.  Will they take it light with B-West?  Surely his broken ribs plus a strong proof-of-concept from Buckhalter two weeks ago should be encouragement enough to share the carries, no?

Abiamiri watch. They said he was going to play a bit more, and I'm excited to see it.  If they thought this guy was better than Parker, then, well, I'm more than a bit curious.  Wasn't he supposed to be the big end who could play the run?  The Birds will likely need that today.

It's probably just the lingering Phillies endorphins talking, but I think the Eagles will win in a game that will feel a lot like the San Francisco game -- the Falcons will hang around and create moments of darkness and despair for the good guys.  But I think the Birds will have another big fourth quarter and get it done.  Eagles 30, Falcons 20.