Earlier this week I posted a series of screenshots that implied -- to me at least -- that Foles' superlative deep passing stats in 2013 might not have matched his "true" ability in that regard. It was one of those moments when "watching the video" > "looking at stats."
To perform a similar exercise for 2014, we should look at every deep throw Foles has missed and determine whether this time around results are falling behind process. However, I'd sooner scratch my eyes out with rusty tweezers than sit through that string of failure, so you get this post instead.
When I do lengthier statistical looks in the offseason, I like to use the FO game charting data, because I can see every single play and collect my own numbers. However, since those aren't available in real time during the regular season, we'll stick with the PFF premium passing stats instead.
I dumped PFF's pass charting stats into an Excel sheet, then looked to see what had changed for Foles between last year and this one. You can see the whole, soon-to-be-obsolete, sheet here as a single-page PDF, but these are the important bits:
As you can see, Foles' YPA numbers haven't budged on throws behind the line of scrimmage or out to nine yards. He's dropped a bit in the 10-19 range, but the effect is mirrored over YPA/YPC. The real decline is in the 20+ area, where his YPA has plummeted (over, yes, only four games) to Jake Locker / Geno Smith / Eli Manning territory.
The table at right, which collapses the categories into deep throws and "everything else," is even more stark. Foles is close to the same guy he was last year on "everything else" throws, but his deep ball stats are 1) way worse and 2) heavily influencing his overall numbers, because they've gone from 18% of his attempts to 25%. That's also the range in which he's thrown three of his four INTs.
Raise your hand if you've ever experienced déjà vu.