Chance of Super Bowl? Four Percent
With a couple minor exceptions (NCAA pools, fantasy, random sportsbook run in Vegas), I don't wager on sporting events. It's a self-preservation thing more than anything else. I'm not a good game picker. I have a tendency to fall in love with storylines, which clouds my judgment on the actual nuts and bolts of the match-up.
Good for writing, bad for the pocketbook.
With that said, I appreciate what Vegas has to tell us about the games in a "wisdom of the crowds" sort of way. I'm not fluent in the language, but I still like reading that stuff.
Yesterday, a publicist for Bodog emailed me a bunch of relevant odds for the upcoming season. (He happened to be a Philly guy -- "Born in Philly, raised in Cherry Hill" -- we're like Red Sox Nation but so much less annoying, I'm telling you.)
I saw the numbers posted somewhere else, but I thought I'd go through it with a bit more commentary:
Season Results
Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl XLIII
Philadelphia Eagles 25/1
Odds to win the 2008
NFC Championship Philadelphia Eagles 10/1
Odds to win the NFC East Division
Philadelphia Eagles 7/2
The first two numbers seem about right to me, that last one doesn't. The Cowboys are the clear favorite, but I'm not seeing how the other two teams are pulling much away.
Still, I know what Philly fans are thinking. "You're saying we've got a one in 26 chance to win a championship? Well, we've had 25 years of failure, so that must make this the year!"
Wins
Philadelphia Eagles Regular Season Wins
Over 8.5 -180
Under 8.5 +150
See, this is where the language of sports betting gets beyond me. They've got that 8.5 number sitting there just to annoy you, but then you have to wager a heck of a lot for not much payout if they go over it. Seems fishy as all get out to me.
Miscellaneous
Will Andy Reid be head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles for week 1 of the 2009 NFL season?
Yes -170
No +140
I'd say this is free money, but again, given my track record, I don't want to jinx the big guy.
Player Performance
Donovan McNabb Passing Yards
Over/Under 3200
Donovan McNabb Passing Touchdowns
Over/Under 18.5
Donovan McNabb Starts
Over/Under 14
If McNabb actually starts 14 games, he's going to obliterate those other numbers. Seems like there's a hedge opportunity here that one of my far more financially savvy friends could exploit. I'm hoping one in particular emails me to enlighten me on how that could work. You know who you are, Mr. Throat.
Brian Westbrook Rushing Yards
Over/Under 1230
Brian Westbrook Receiving Yards
Over/Under 700
Brian Westbrook Total Touchdowns
Over/Under 11.5
High, high and high.
Lorenzo Booker Rushing and Receiving Yards
Over/Under 475
Also seems high. Buckhalter isn't dead.
LJ Smith Receiving Yards
Over/Under 600
LJ Smith Touchdowns
Over/Under 4.5
Both low. McNabb is going to feed LJ this year, I can just feel it. (See, there's that storyline thing again.)
Trent Cole Sacks
Over/Under 11.5
Will look like a sure thing after September, will not look nearly as good after November.
Asante Samuel Interceptions
Over/Under 4.5
Book it. You can't just avoid Samuel because the other corners aren't chickenscratch. Samuel -- if he stays healthy -- is our new Ronde Barber, except this time he's on our side.
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