Vegas, Baby. Vegas.

And so I'm off to the land of degenerate gamblers this afternoon, for the annual trip to Vegas with the college friends.  Long-time readers may recall that last year's trip was a no-go for me, due to the "imminent" birth of our first child. 

Long, long time readers may recall the last trip two years ago, when I watched the Saints game from my hotel room, saw an overmatched team lose because they couldn't stop the run (or really the short passing game either), and then missed the ensuing "dust"storm as the town convulsed in an argument about whether or not Andy Reid should have punted or gone for it on fourth down. 

I'd make fun of the people who said he should obviously have gone for it, but well, we all make mistakes.

Barring a rapid and tragic collapse of my bankroll, I won't be posting much this weekend.  (Although if I do put something up, there's a decent chance it will be at 3 a.m. outside some sportsbook after hours of free drinks, so you know, jump on that before I take it down.)

The sad thing is that I'm not likely to run into that many obnoxious Arizona fans.  Oh, I'm sure I'll see some strikingly new-looking Larry Fitzgerald jerseys running around, but it's not like it's Dallas or one of the New Jersey teams.  The chances of humorous hijinks arising from accidental meetings just isn't that great. 

In regards to the game, at this point, I'm feeling pretty good.  Not as giddy as on Monday, not as worried as on Wednesday.  The match-up here is between a team with a good offense and a good defense versus a team with a good offense and a not-so-good defense.  You have to think the odds are in favor of the team that's good on both sides of the ball.

Which is the same thing you have to tell yourself when you split eights against that nine. 

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Last thing, earlier this week I did a preview deal with the guys over at Pigskin Podcast.  Check it out if you're a maniac who's just fiending for more Eagles stuff.  You know who you are.

And yeah, that was taped during the "giddy" stage.

Chance of Super Bowl? Four Percent

With a couple minor exceptions (NCAA pools, fantasy, random sportsbook run in Vegas), I don't wager on sporting events.  It's a self-preservation thing more than anything else.  I'm not a good game picker.  I have a tendency to fall in love with storylines, which clouds my judgment on the actual nuts and bolts of the match-up. 

Good for writing, bad for the pocketbook.

With that said, I appreciate what Vegas has to tell us about the games in a "wisdom of the crowds" sort of way.  I'm not fluent in the language, but I still like reading that stuff.

Yesterday, a publicist for Bodog emailed me a bunch of relevant odds for the upcoming season.  (He happened to be a Philly guy -- "Born in Philly, raised in Cherry Hill" -- we're like Red Sox Nation but so much less annoying, I'm telling you.)  

I saw the numbers posted somewhere else, but I thought I'd go through it with a bit more commentary:

Season Results

Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl XLIII
Philadelphia Eagles 25/1

Odds to win the 2008
NFC Championship Philadelphia Eagles 10/1

Odds to win the NFC East Division
Philadelphia Eagles 7/2

The first two numbers seem about right to me, that last one doesn't.  The Cowboys are the clear favorite, but I'm not seeing how the other two teams are pulling much away. 

Still, I know what Philly fans are thinking.  "You're saying we've got a one in 26 chance to win a championship?  Well, we've had 25 years of failure, so that must make this the year!"

Wins

Philadelphia Eagles Regular Season Wins
Over 8.5 -180
Under 8.5 +150

See, this is where the language of sports betting gets beyond me.  They've got that 8.5 number sitting there just to annoy you, but then you have to wager a heck of a lot for not much payout if they go over it.  Seems fishy as all get out to me.

Miscellaneous

Will Andy Reid be head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles for week 1 of the 2009 NFL season?
Yes -170
No +140

I'd say this is free money, but again, given my track record, I don't want to jinx the big guy.

Player Performance

Donovan McNabb Passing Yards
Over/Under 3200

Donovan McNabb Passing Touchdowns
Over/Under 18.5

Donovan McNabb Starts
Over/Under 14

If McNabb actually starts 14 games, he's going to obliterate those other numbers.  Seems like there's a hedge opportunity here that one of my far more financially savvy friends could exploit.  I'm hoping one in particular emails me to enlighten me on how that could work.  You know who you are, Mr. Throat.

Brian Westbrook Rushing Yards
Over/Under 1230

Brian Westbrook Receiving Yards
Over/Under 700

Brian Westbrook Total Touchdowns
Over/Under 11.5

High, high and high.

Lorenzo Booker Rushing and Receiving Yards
Over/Under 475

Also seems high.  Buckhalter isn't dead.

LJ Smith Receiving Yards
Over/Under 600

LJ Smith Touchdowns
Over/Under 4.5

Both low.  McNabb is going to feed LJ this year, I can just feel it.  (See, there's that storyline thing again.)

Trent Cole Sacks
Over/Under 11.5

Will look like a sure thing after September, will not look nearly as good after November.

Asante Samuel Interceptions
Over/Under 4.5

Book it.  You can't just avoid Samuel because the other corners aren't chickenscratch.  Samuel -- if he stays healthy -- is our new Ronde Barber, except this time he's on our side. 

Eagles Getting Some Love

Eagletarian lists some encouraging Vegas numbers for the Eagles.  There's plenty more of that out there.  Like this site with the Eagles having the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl.  And a couple of meaningless power rankings that have the Eagles in the league's top ten.

Obviously, we all have our eyes on something a lot bigger than "top ten," but this isn't shaping up to be a no-respect kind of offseason.

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Speaking of preseason odds, the NFC team with the best chance of winning it all right now is the Dallas Cowboys.  A few interesting articles here for people doing their opposition research:

• Terence Newman is old (but it doesn't matter)
• Roy Williams has pretty much worn out his welcome
• Zach Thomas is a consummate pro (but how's his head?)

20 Points

There's your opening line for this week's game.  Awesome.